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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal

S U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Chelsea

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 60%

55%

64%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

64%

59%

Both score Ø 64%

77%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	23	19	3	1	+41	60
2	Man City	22	17	2	3	+42	53
3	Tottenham	22	16	0	6	+24	48
4	Chelsea	22	14	5	3	+23	47
5	Man United	23	13	5	5	+13	44
6	Arsenal	22	12	5	5	+14	41
7	Watford	23	9	6	8	+0	33
8	Wolves	23	9	5	9	-4	32
9	Leicester	23	9	4	10	+0	31
10	West Ham	23	9	4	10	-4	31
11	Everton	23	8	6	9	+1	30
12	Bournemouth	23	9	3	11	-9	30
13	Brighton	23	7	5	11	-7	26
14	Crystal Palace	23	6	4	13	-9	22
15	Southampton	23	5	7	11	-15	22
16	Burnley	23	6	4	13	-20	22
17	Newcastle	23	5	6	12	-12	21
18	Cardiff	23	5	4	14	-25	19
19	Fulham	22	3	5	14	-29	14
20	Huddersfield	22	2	5	15	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+25	31
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Chelsea	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Man United	11	7	3	1	+9	24
6	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+4	21
7	Everton	12	6	3	3	+4	21
8	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+8	18
9	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
10	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
12	Wolves	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
14	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
16	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
17	Southampton	11	2	5	4	-5	11
18	Newcastle	12	3	1	8	-7	10
19	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Huddersfield	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	10	0	2	+16	30
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Man United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Leicester	12	5	2	5	-1	17
7	Watford	11	4	4	3	+2	16
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	1	7	-4	13
12	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	-5	11
13	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Everton	11	2	3	6	-3	9
15	Bournemouth	11	3	0	8	-13	9
16	Burnley	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	11	1	2	8	-15	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.