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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Watford

T U S S T

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

42%

21%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,4

0,7

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Newcastle 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	16	3	0	+36	51
2	Tottenham	19	15	0	4	+24	45
3	Man City	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+21	40
5	Arsenal	19	11	5	3	+16	38
6	Man United	19	9	5	5	+6	32
7	Leicester	19	8	4	7	+2	28
8	Everton	19	7	6	6	+2	27
9	West Ham	19	8	3	8	-1	27
10	Watford	19	8	3	8	-1	27
11	Wolves	19	7	5	7	-2	26
12	Bournemouth	19	8	2	9	-6	26
13	Brighton	19	6	4	9	-6	22
14	Crystal Palace	19	5	4	10	-8	19
15	Newcastle	19	4	5	10	-12	17
16	Southampton	19	3	6	10	-15	15
17	Cardiff	19	4	3	12	-20	15
18	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-24	12
19	Fulham	19	2	5	12	-26	11
20	Huddersfield	19	2	4	13	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+20	25
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+11	18
6	Man United	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
8	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
9	Brighton	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Watford	10	5	0	5	-2	15
11	Leicester	9	4	2	3	+3	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-8	9
17	Southampton	9	1	5	3	-4	8
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
19	Burnley	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Man City	9	5	2	2	+10	17
5	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
9	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Wolves	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Newcastle	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Bournemouth	9	3	0	6	-8	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Cardiff	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.