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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Leicester

T S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 35%

42%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

52%

45%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

12 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 7. · Newcastle 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	33	25	7	1	+55	82
2	Man City	32	26	2	4	+62	80
3	Chelsea	33	20	6	7	+23	66
4	Tottenham	32	21	1	10	+26	64
5	Arsenal	32	19	6	7	+25	63
6	Man United	32	18	7	7	+18	61
7	Leicester	33	14	5	14	+2	47
8	Wolves	32	13	8	11	+1	47
9	Everton	33	13	7	13	+4	46
10	Watford	32	13	7	12	+0	46
11	West Ham	33	12	6	15	-9	42
12	Crystal Palace	33	11	6	16	-4	39
13	Bournemouth	33	11	5	17	-17	38
14	Burnley	33	10	6	17	-20	36
15	Newcastle	33	9	8	16	-12	35
16	Brighton	31	9	6	16	-14	33
17	Southampton	32	8	9	15	-17	33
18	Cardiff	32	8	4	20	-33	28
19	Fulham	33	4	5	24	-46	17
20	Huddersfield	33	3	5	25	-44	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	0	1	+43	48
2	Liverpool	16	14	2	0	+36	44
3	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+27	44
4	Chelsea	17	11	5	1	+24	38
5	Man United	15	9	5	1	+11	32
6	Tottenham	15	10	1	4	+14	31
7	Everton	17	8	4	5	+3	28
8	Wolves	16	8	3	5	+4	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+2	27
10	Bournemouth	17	7	5	5	+5	26
11	Watford	15	8	2	5	+3	26
12	Leicester	16	7	2	7	+2	23
13	Brighton	15	6	4	5	+1	22
14	Newcastle	17	7	1	9	-2	22
15	Burnley	16	6	2	8	-7	20
16	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
17	Southampton	16	4	6	6	-5	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	16
19	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-13	15
20	Huddersfield	17	2	2	13	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+19	38
2	Tottenham	17	11	0	6	+12	33
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+19	32
4	Man United	17	9	2	6	+7	29
5	Chelsea	16	9	1	6	-1	28
6	Leicester	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Watford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Wolves	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Arsenal	15	5	4	6	-2	19
11	Everton	16	5	3	8	+1	18
12	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
13	West Ham	16	4	3	9	-11	15
14	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
15	Newcastle	16	2	7	7	-10	13
16	Bournemouth	16	4	0	12	-22	12
17	Brighton	16	3	2	11	-15	11
18	Cardiff	15	2	2	11	-19	8
19	Huddersfield	16	1	3	12	-24	6
20	Fulham	17	0	2	15	-33	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.