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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Chaves

U U S T T

2–2

Full-time

Belenenses

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 27%

21%

32%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

46%

39%

Both score Ø 41%

43%

39%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

30% Possession 70%

13 Shots 22

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 6

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

2 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chaves 17. · Belenenses 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	22	3	3	+53	69
2	Porto	28	22	3	3	+41	69
3	Sp Lisbon	28	19	4	5	+28	61
4	Sp Braga	28	18	4	6	+18	58
5	Moreirense	28	15	3	10	+0	48
6	Guimaraes	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Belenenses	28	9	12	7	+4	39
8	Santa Clara	28	10	6	12	+0	36
9	Rio Ave	28	8	8	12	-7	32
10	Portimonense	28	9	5	14	-8	32
11	Vitoria Setubal	28	7	10	11	-5	31
12	Aves	28	8	6	14	-11	30
13	Maritimo	28	9	3	16	-15	30
14	Boavista	28	8	5	15	-14	29
15	Tondela	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	Nacional	28	7	6	15	-28	27
17	Chaves	28	6	6	16	-23	24
18	Feirense	28	2	9	17	-33	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
3	Sp Braga	14	11	1	2	+15	34
4	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+31	32
5	Guimaraes	14	9	3	2	+13	30
6	Moreirense	14	8	3	3	+3	27
7	Portimonense	14	6	4	4	+6	22
8	Boavista	14	7	1	6	+2	22
9	Belenenses	14	5	5	4	+5	20
10	Tondela	14	5	3	6	-4	18
11	Nacional	15	5	3	7	-5	18
12	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	5	5	+0	17
13	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
15	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
16	Aves	14	4	3	7	-3	15
17	Chaves	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	Feirense	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+15	33
3	Sp Braga	14	7	3	4	+3	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+5	21
5	Moreirense	14	7	0	7	-3	21
6	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+2	19
7	Belenenses	14	4	7	3	-1	19
8	Guimaraes	14	4	3	7	-2	15
9	Rio Ave	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Aves	14	4	3	7	-8	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Maritimo	15	4	1	10	-11	13
13	Tondela	14	2	4	8	-7	10
14	Portimonense	14	3	1	10	-14	10
15	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-18	10
16	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-23	9
17	Boavista	14	1	4	9	-16	7
18	Feirense	14	1	4	9	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.