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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Chelsea

T S S S T

2–2

Full-time

Burnley

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 46%

59%

32%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

56%

59%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

76% Possession 24%

22 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Burnley 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	27	7	1	+59	88
2	Man City	34	28	2	4	+65	86
3	Tottenham	34	22	1	11	+29	67
4	Arsenal	34	20	6	8	+25	66
5	Chelsea	34	20	6	8	+21	66
6	Man United	34	19	7	8	+15	64
7	Everton	35	14	7	14	+6	49
8	Watford	34	14	7	13	+0	49
9	Leicester	35	14	6	15	+1	48
10	Wolves	34	13	9	12	-1	48
11	West Ham	35	12	7	16	-10	43
12	Crystal Palace	35	12	6	17	-5	42
13	Newcastle	35	11	8	16	-9	41
14	Bournemouth	35	12	5	18	-13	41
15	Burnley	34	11	6	17	-18	39
16	Southampton	34	9	9	16	-17	36
17	Brighton	34	9	7	18	-21	34
18	Cardiff	35	9	4	22	-35	31
19	Fulham	35	6	5	24	-43	23
20	Huddersfield	35	3	5	27	-49	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	0	1	+44	51
2	Liverpool	17	15	2	0	+38	47
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+26	44
4	Chelsea	17	11	5	1	+24	38
5	Man United	16	10	5	1	+12	35
6	Tottenham	16	11	1	4	+18	34
7	Everton	18	9	4	5	+7	31
8	Wolves	17	8	4	5	+4	28
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+2	28
10	Bournemouth	18	7	5	6	+4	26
11	Watford	16	8	2	6	+2	26
12	Newcastle	18	8	1	9	+0	25
13	Leicester	17	7	2	8	+1	23
14	Burnley	17	7	2	8	-5	23
15	Brighton	17	6	4	7	-6	22
16	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Cardiff	18	6	2	10	-16	20
18	Fulham	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	16
20	Huddersfield	18	2	2	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	12	5	1	+21	41
2	Man City	16	11	2	3	+21	35
3	Tottenham	18	11	0	7	+11	33
4	Man United	18	9	2	7	+3	29
5	Chelsea	17	9	1	7	-3	28
6	Crystal Palace	18	8	2	8	+1	26
7	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Watford	18	6	5	7	-2	23
9	Arsenal	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-5	20
11	Everton	17	5	3	9	-1	18
12	Newcastle	17	3	7	7	-9	16
13	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	West Ham	17	4	3	10	-12	15
15	Southampton	17	4	3	10	-14	15
16	Bournemouth	17	5	0	12	-17	15
17	Brighton	17	3	3	11	-15	12
18	Cardiff	17	3	2	12	-19	11
19	Huddersfield	17	1	3	13	-28	6
20	Fulham	18	1	2	15	-32	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.