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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Burnley

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Chelsea

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 59%

38%

79%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

54%

63%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

28% Possession 72%

7 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 13. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	24	19	2	3	+34	59
2	Tottenham	25	14	8	3	+28	50
3	Arsenal	25	15	5	5	+26	50
4	Liverpool	25	14	7	4	+24	49
5	Man City	24	15	4	5	+20	49
6	Man United	25	13	9	3	+17	48
7	Everton	25	11	8	6	+13	41
8	West Brom	25	10	7	8	+3	37
9	Stoke	25	8	8	9	-6	32
10	West Ham	25	9	5	11	-9	32
11	Southampton	25	8	6	11	-3	30
12	Watford	25	8	6	11	-13	30
13	Burnley	24	9	2	13	-9	29
14	Bournemouth	24	7	5	12	-12	26
15	Middlesbrough	25	4	10	11	-8	22
16	Leicester	24	5	6	13	-17	21
17	Swansea	24	6	3	15	-25	21
18	Hull	25	5	5	15	-27	20
19	Crystal Palace	25	5	4	16	-14	19
20	Sunderland	25	5	4	16	-22	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	11	0	1	+26	33
2	Tottenham	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
4	Burnley	13	9	1	3	+10	28
5	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+20	27
6	Everton	12	7	4	1	+15	25
7	Man City	12	7	4	1	+10	25
8	Man United	13	6	6	1	+10	24
9	West Brom	12	7	2	3	+8	23
10	Stoke	13	5	5	3	+1	20
11	Bournemouth	12	5	3	4	+2	18
12	Leicester	12	5	3	4	+0	18
13	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
14	Watford	12	5	3	4	-1	18
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-8	18
16	Hull	12	4	3	5	-5	15
17	Middlesbrough	13	3	4	6	-3	13
18	Sunderland	13	3	3	7	-10	12
19	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-12	11
20	Crystal Palace	12	2	1	9	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+8	26
2	Man City	12	8	0	4	+10	24
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Liverpool	13	6	4	3	+4	22
5	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+13	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
8	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
9	West Brom	13	3	5	5	-5	14
10	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-3	12
11	Crystal Palace	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-7	12
13	Watford	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Swansea	12	3	1	8	-13	10
15	Middlesbrough	12	1	6	5	-5	9
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-14	8
17	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Hull	13	1	2	10	-22	5
19	Leicester	12	0	3	9	-17	3
20	Burnley	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.