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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Burnley

S S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 49%

42%

55%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

33%

58%

Both score Ø 44%

42%

45%

Average goals

1,9

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

5 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 7. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	33	28	3	2	+68	87
2	Man United	34	23	5	6	+39	74
3	Liverpool	34	20	10	4	+43	70
4	Tottenham	34	20	8	6	+35	68
5	Chelsea	33	18	6	9	+24	60
6	Arsenal	33	16	6	11	+17	54
7	Burnley	33	14	10	9	+4	52
8	Leicester	33	11	10	12	+2	43
9	Everton	34	11	9	14	-15	42
10	Newcastle	33	11	8	14	-7	41
11	Bournemouth	35	9	11	15	-17	38
12	Watford	34	10	7	17	-18	37
13	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-15	36
14	West Ham	33	8	11	14	-18	35
15	Huddersfield	34	9	8	17	-27	35
16	Crystal Palace	34	8	10	16	-18	34
17	Swansea	33	8	9	16	-19	33
18	Southampton	33	5	13	15	-20	28
19	Stoke	34	6	10	18	-33	28
20	West Brom	34	4	12	18	-25	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	14	1	1	+40	43
2	Man United	17	13	2	2	+27	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+26	41
4	Liverpool	17	11	6	0	+31	39
5	Tottenham	16	10	4	2	+20	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Brighton	18	6	8	4	-2	26
9	Newcastle	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	Burnley	16	7	4	5	+1	25
11	Leicester	16	6	5	5	+3	23
12	West Ham	16	6	5	5	-1	23
13	Bournemouth	18	6	5	7	-5	23
14	Watford	17	6	5	6	-5	23
15	Huddersfield	17	6	5	6	-6	23
16	Swansea	16	6	3	7	-4	21
17	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-5	20
18	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	19
19	Southampton	17	3	7	7	-6	16
20	West Brom	17	2	8	7	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+28	44
2	Tottenham	18	10	4	4	+15	34
3	Man United	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Liverpool	17	9	4	4	+12	31
5	Chelsea	16	8	3	5	+11	27
6	Burnley	17	7	6	4	+3	27
7	Leicester	17	5	5	7	-1	20
8	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-9	16
9	Bournemouth	17	3	6	8	-12	15
10	Watford	17	4	2	11	-13	14
11	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	-13	14
12	Arsenal	16	3	4	9	-9	13
13	Southampton	16	2	6	8	-14	12
14	Swansea	17	2	6	9	-15	12
15	West Ham	17	2	6	9	-17	12
16	Everton	17	2	6	9	-20	12
17	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Brighton	16	2	4	10	-13	10
19	West Brom	17	2	4	11	-16	10
20	Stoke	17	1	6	10	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.