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Premier League
Referee: Craig Pawson
Burnley
T S S U T
0–4
Full-time
Chelsea
S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,3
This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 45%
22%
67%
Points per game
0,9
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
56%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
44%
56%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,1
2,2
Conceded
1,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

30% Possession 70%
7 Shots 24
1 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
5 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 10
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 14. · Chelsea 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 +16 26
2 Man City 9 7 2 0 +23 23
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 +13 21
4 Arsenal 9 7 0 2 +11 21
5 Tottenham 9 7 0 2 +9 21
6 Bournemouth 10 6 2 2 +7 20
7 Watford 10 6 1 3 +4 19
8 Everton 9 4 3 2 +3 15
9 Wolves 10 4 3 3 +0 15
10 Man United 9 4 2 3 -1 14
11 Brighton 10 4 2 4 -2 14
12 Leicester 10 4 1 5 +0 13
13 West Ham 10 2 2 6 -6 8
14 Burnley 9 2 2 5 -7 8
15 Crystal Palace 9 2 1 6 -6 7
16 Southampton 10 1 4 5 -8 7
17 Cardiff 10 1 2 7 -14 5
18 Fulham 10 1 2 7 -17 5
19 Newcastle 10 0 3 7 -8 3
20 Huddersfield 10 0 3 7 -17 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Chelsea
22′
Álvaro Morata 0–1
R. Barkley
30′
🔁 R. Loftus-Cheek
↦ Pedro
James Tarkowski 🟨
43′
43′
🟨 Álvaro Morata
45′
🟨 Willian
Half-time 0–1
Jeff Hendrick 🟨
48′
57′
R. Barkley 0–2
N. Kanté
C. Wood 🔁
↦ S. Vokes
59′
Robbie Brady 🟨
61′
62′
Willian 0–3
R. Barkley
Jóhann Guðmundsson 🟨
64′
A. Barnes 🔁
↦ J. Hendrick
65′
A. Westwood 🔁
↦ J. Cork
73′
74′
🔁 O. Giroud
↦ Álvaro Morata
78′
🔁 Fàbregas
↦ Jorginho
92′
R. Loftus-Cheek 0–4
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-1-1
20 J. Hart G
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
3 C. Taylor D
16 S. Defour M
4 J. Cork M
7 J. Guðmunds­son M
12 R. Brady M
13 J. Hendrick F
9 S. Vokes F
Bench (7)
11 C. Wood
10 A. Barnes
18 A. Westwood
1 T. Heaton
26 P. Bardsley
27 M. Vydra
28 K. Long

Coach: S. Dyche

Chelsea

4-3-3
1 Kepa G
30 David Luiz D
28 Azpilicueta D
3 Marcos Alonso D
2 A. Rüdiger D
8 R. Barkley M
5 Jorginho M
7 N. Kanté M
22 Willian F
11 Pedro F
29 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (7)
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
18 O. Giroud
4 Fàbregas
13 W. Caballero
17 M. Kovačić
21 D. Zappacosta
24 G. Cahill

Coach: M. Sarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Craig Pawson · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.