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Championship

Referee: Simon Hooper

Nott'm Forest

T U U T T

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

20%

53%

Points per game

0,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

27%

40%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

1,8

2,1

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%

15 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 19. · Derby 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	15	9	4	2	+15	31
2	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+9	31
3	Middlesbrough	15	9	3	3	+15	30
4	Derby	15	8	6	1	+12	30
5	Brighton	14	8	6	0	+8	30
6	Birmingham	15	7	4	4	+4	25
7	Reading	15	6	6	3	+8	24
8	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+3	23
9	Cardiff	15	5	7	3	+3	22
10	Ipswich	15	5	6	4	-3	21
11	Fulham	15	5	5	5	+4	20
12	Brentford	15	6	2	7	-2	20
13	QPR	15	5	4	6	-2	19
14	Wolves	15	5	3	7	-1	18
15	Blackburn	15	3	7	5	+0	16
16	Preston	15	3	7	5	-2	16
17	Leeds	15	3	7	5	-6	16
18	Huddersfield	15	3	6	6	-4	15
19	Nott'm Forest	15	3	5	7	-5	14
20	Milton Keynes Dons	15	4	2	9	-8	14
21	Bristol City	15	3	5	7	-9	14
22	Bolton	15	1	7	7	-12	10
23	Charlton	15	2	4	9	-14	10
24	Rotherham	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	8	6	1	1	+13	19
2	Burnley	8	6	1	1	+8	19
3	Hull	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Brighton	7	5	2	0	+5	17
5	Derby	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Cardiff	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Reading	8	3	4	1	+6	13
9	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	+4	13
10	QPR	7	3	3	1	+5	12
11	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+3	11
12	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Brentford	8	3	1	4	-4	10
14	Huddersfield	7	2	3	2	+3	9
15	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+3	9
16	Milton Keynes Dons	8	3	0	5	-3	9
17	Bolton	7	1	5	1	+0	8
18	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
19	Preston	8	1	5	2	-1	8
20	Charlton	7	2	2	3	-4	8
21	Bristol City	8	2	2	4	-5	8
22	Nott'm Forest	7	1	3	3	-2	6
23	Leeds	8	1	3	4	-5	6
24	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	7	4	3	0	+5	15
2	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Hull	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	13
5	Burnley	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Brentford	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Wolves	8	3	1	4	+0	10
10	Leeds	7	2	4	1	-1	10
11	Fulham	8	2	3	3	+1	9
12	Sheffield Weds	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Cardiff	8	1	5	2	-1	8
14	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Ipswich	7	2	2	3	-7	8
17	Blackburn	8	1	4	3	-3	7
18	QPR	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Bristol City	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Huddersfield	8	1	3	4	-7	6
21	Milton Keynes Dons	7	1	2	4	-5	5
22	Rotherham	8	1	1	6	-7	4
23	Charlton	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Bolton	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.