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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Derby

S S U S S

4–2

Full-time

Wolves

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

30%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

1,9

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Wolves 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	11	7	4	0	+7	25
2	Reading	11	6	3	2	+10	21
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	3	2	+10	21
4	Birmingham	11	6	3	2	+7	21
5	Burnley	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Hull	11	5	4	2	+6	19
7	Derby	10	4	5	1	+5	17
8	Cardiff	11	4	5	2	+3	17
9	Sheffield Weds	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Ipswich	11	4	4	3	-2	16
11	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+4	15
12	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Fulham	11	3	4	4	+1	13
14	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Blackburn	11	2	5	4	-1	11
16	Milton Keynes Dons	11	3	2	6	-2	11
17	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-4	11
18	Leeds	11	2	5	4	-5	11
19	Brentford	11	3	2	6	-6	11
20	Charlton	11	2	4	5	-4	10
21	Bristol City	11	2	4	5	-6	10
22	Preston	11	1	5	5	-6	8
23	Rotherham	11	2	2	7	-8	8
24	Bolton	11	1	5	5	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+9	13
2	Burnley	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Brighton	5	4	1	0	+4	13
4	Reading	6	3	2	1	+6	11
5	Hull	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Sheffield Weds	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+2	9
10	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Charlton	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Fulham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Bolton	5	1	4	0	+1	7
16	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Huddersfield	5	1	3	1	+2	6
18	Derby	5	1	3	1	+1	6
19	Milton Keynes Dons	6	2	0	4	-2	6
20	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Preston	6	0	4	2	-2	4
22	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-2	4
23	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
24	Leeds	6	0	3	3	-4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	12
2	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Derby	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Hull	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Leeds	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Cardiff	6	1	4	1	+0	7
12	Ipswich	5	2	1	2	-4	7
13	QPR	6	2	1	3	-5	7
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	+0	6
15	Milton Keynes Dons	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-3	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-6	5
19	Rotherham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
20	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	Preston	5	1	1	3	-4	4
22	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	3
23	Charlton	6	0	2	4	-6	2
24	Bolton	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.