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Championship
Referee: Rob Lewis
Brighton
T T S S S
3–2
Full-time
Bolton
T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Bolton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,5
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
This season — Championship · 28/30 matches
Win Ø 32%
50%
13%
Points per game
1,9
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 54%
57%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,6
Scored
1,3
0,9
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

53% Possession 47%
15 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 2
3 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brighton 4. · Bolton 23.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 29 17 6 6 +23 57
2 Hull 28 17 5 6 +28 56
3 Burnley 30 15 10 5 +22 55
4 Brighton 28 14 10 4 +9 52
5 Sheffield Weds 29 13 10 6 +12 49
6 Derby 29 12 12 5 +12 48
7 Ipswich 30 13 9 8 +2 48
8 Birmingham 30 13 8 9 +8 47
9 Cardiff 30 11 12 7 +5 45
10 Nott'm Forest 30 10 12 8 +6 42
11 Wolves 30 10 10 10 -1 40
12 Brentford 30 11 7 12 -2 40
13 QPR 31 9 12 10 -1 39
14 Preston 30 9 12 9 -1 39
15 Reading 30 9 9 12 +0 36
16 Leeds 30 8 12 10 -5 36
17 Fulham 30 7 11 12 -3 32
18 Huddersfield 30 8 8 14 -4 32
19 Blackburn 28 6 13 9 +0 31
20 Milton Keynes Dons 30 7 7 16 -18 28
21 Bristol City 30 6 10 14 -22 28
22 Rotherham 30 7 4 19 -19 25
23 Bolton 30 4 12 14 -21 24
24 Charlton 30 5 9 16 -30 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Sep -15 Bolton – Brighton 2–2

Match report

Brighton Bolton
Dale Stephens 🟨
9′
1–0 J. Murphy
B. Kayal
11′
22′
E. Heskey 1–1
Wellington Silva
2–1 T. Hemed
B. Zamora
43′
Half-time 2–1
Anthony Knockaert 🟨
51′
52′
J. Spearing 2–2
3–2 B. Kayal
T. Hemed
58′
66′
🔁 Z. Clough
↦ Wellington Silva
Inigo Calderon 🔁
↦ L. Ridgewell
70′
K. LuaLua 🔁
↦ B. Zamora
75′
82′
🟨 Josh Vela
84′
🔁 K. Woolery
↦ M. Davies
89′
🔁 N. Danns
↦ J. Spearing
J. Skalák 🔁
↦ A. Knockaert
90′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Brighton

13 D. Stockdale
33 L. Ridgewell D
2 Bruno Saltor D
5 L. Dunk D
17 C. Goldson D
6 D. Stephens M
7 B. Kayal M
25 B. Zamora F
15 J. Murphy M
10 T. Hemed F
27 A. Knockaert M
Bench (7)
14 Inigo Calderon
30 K. LuaLua
38 J. Skalák
8 A. Crofts
9 S. Baldock
16 C. Ankergren
36 S. Sidwell

Bolton

1 B. Amos G
4 D. Dervite D
15 Derik Osede M
45 R. Holding D
16 M. Davies M
8 J. Spearing M
7 L. Feeney M
21 D. Pratley M
6 J. Vela M
19 E. Heskey F
22 Wellington Silva M
Bench (7)
10 Z. Clough
30 K. Woolery
18 N. Danns
13 P. Rachubka
23 S. Dobbie
27 F. Twardzik
36 A. Finney

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.