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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Rotherham

T T S S S

3–3

Full-time

Derby

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rotherham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 36%

28%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

37%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

43%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

33% Possession 67%

15 Shots 22

6 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rotherham 22. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	36	20	11	5	+28	71
2	Middlesbrough	35	20	7	8	+26	67
3	Hull	32	19	6	7	+30	63
4	Brighton	34	17	12	5	+15	63
5	Derby	35	15	12	8	+13	57
6	Cardiff	36	14	13	9	+7	55
7	Ipswich	35	15	10	10	+2	55
8	Birmingham	35	15	9	11	+6	54
9	Sheffield Weds	33	14	11	8	+14	53
10	Preston	36	12	13	11	+0	49
11	QPR	36	11	14	11	+1	47
12	Leeds	36	11	14	11	-5	47
13	Wolves	36	12	10	14	-5	46
14	Nott'm Forest	35	11	12	12	+2	45
15	Reading	35	11	11	13	+0	44
16	Blackburn	36	10	13	13	+2	43
17	Brentford	35	12	7	16	-7	43
18	Huddersfield	36	11	9	16	-2	42
19	Fulham	36	8	13	15	-6	37
20	Bristol City	36	9	10	17	-25	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	36	9	9	18	-18	36
22	Rotherham	36	10	5	21	-19	35
23	Charlton	36	6	11	19	-34	29
24	Bolton	36	4	14	18	-25	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	13	3	2	+22	42
2	Middlesbrough	17	12	3	2	+20	39
3	Brighton	17	12	2	3	+12	38
4	Hull	14	11	3	0	+26	36
5	Sheffield Weds	17	10	5	2	+18	35
6	Cardiff	18	9	7	2	+10	34
7	Derby	18	9	6	3	+14	33
8	QPR	18	7	8	3	+8	29
9	Reading	18	7	8	3	+8	29
10	Birmingham	17	9	2	6	+3	29
11	Blackburn	19	7	7	5	+7	28
12	Preston	18	7	7	4	+2	28
13	Nott'm Forest	18	7	6	5	+6	27
14	Ipswich	17	7	6	4	+4	27
15	Huddersfield	18	7	4	7	+7	25
16	Wolves	18	6	6	6	-1	24
17	Brentford	18	7	3	8	-2	24
18	Rotherham	18	7	3	8	-3	24
19	Milton Keynes Dons	18	7	3	8	-6	24
20	Bolton	18	4	10	4	+0	22
21	Leeds	18	5	7	6	-3	22
22	Fulham	18	5	5	8	+0	20
23	Bristol City	18	4	6	8	-12	18
24	Charlton	18	3	8	7	-9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	7	8	3	+6	29
2	Middlesbrough	18	8	4	6	+6	28
3	Ipswich	18	8	4	6	-2	28
4	Hull	18	8	3	7	+4	27
5	Brighton	17	5	10	2	+3	25
6	Birmingham	18	6	7	5	+3	25
7	Leeds	18	6	7	5	-2	25
8	Derby	17	6	6	5	-1	24
9	Wolves	18	6	4	8	-4	22
10	Preston	18	5	6	7	-2	21
11	Cardiff	18	5	6	7	-3	21
12	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-5	19
13	Bristol City	18	5	4	9	-13	19
14	Sheffield Weds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
15	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-4	18
16	QPR	18	4	6	8	-7	18
17	Fulham	18	3	8	7	-6	17
18	Huddersfield	18	4	5	9	-9	17
19	Blackburn	17	3	6	8	-5	15
20	Reading	17	4	3	10	-8	15
21	Milton Keynes Dons	18	2	6	10	-12	12
22	Charlton	18	3	3	12	-25	12
23	Rotherham	18	3	2	13	-16	11
24	Bolton	18	0	4	14	-25	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.