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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Lorient
U T S S U
1–1
Full-time
Marseille
T U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 30%
31%
28%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
52%
31%
Both score Ø 66%
66%
66%
Average goals
2,8
2,4
Scored
1,4
1,3
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%
15 Shots 10
10 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
7 Corners 5
3 Offside 5
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lorient 12. · Marseille 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 29 23 5 1 +53 74
2 Monaco 30 13 13 4 +10 52
3 Lyon 29 13 6 10 +14 45
4 Nice 29 12 8 9 +8 44
5 Rennes 29 11 11 7 +6 44
6 Caen 29 13 4 12 -6 43
7 St Etienne 29 12 6 11 +1 42
8 Nantes 29 10 11 8 -1 41
9 Angers 29 10 9 10 +0 39
10 Bastia 29 11 6 12 -2 39
11 Marseille 29 8 14 7 +9 38
12 Lorient 29 9 11 9 -1 38
13 Bordeaux 29 9 11 9 -6 38
14 Lille 29 8 13 8 +0 37
15 Montpellier 29 10 6 13 +3 36
16 Reims 30 8 9 13 -9 33
17 Guingamp 29 8 8 13 -11 32
18 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 29 6 12 11 -10 30
19 Toulouse 29 4 11 14 -20 23
20 Troyes 29 2 8 19 -38 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Oct -15 Marseille – Lorient 1–1

Match report

Lorient Marseille
17′
🔁 Lucas Silva
↦ B. Mendy
1–0 A. Waris
W. Mesloub
34′
Half-time 1–1
46′
M. Isla 1–1
52′
🔁 Rolando
↦ K. Rekik
67′
🟨 Lucas Silva
F. Bellugou 🔁
↦ M. Barthelmé
67′
68′
🟨 Rémy Cabella
70′
🔁 B. Sarr
↦ F. Thauvin
Y. Jouffre 🔁
↦ J. Cabot
77′
V. Le Goff 🔁
↦ B. Jeannot
81′
Lamine Gassama 🟨
82′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lorient

40 B. Lecomte G
25 L. Gassama D
5 Z. Touré D
26 L. Rose D
14 Raphaël Guerreiro D
17 W. Mesloub M
28 M. Barthelmé M
7 D. Ndong M
9 A. Waris F
22 B. Jeannot F
27 J. Cabot M
Bench (7)
6 F. Bellugou
8 Y. Jouffre
4 V. Le Goff
3 Y. Musavu-King
13 R. Abdullah
19 R. Philippoteaux
30 F. Chaigneau

Marseille

30 S. Mandanda G
3 N. N'Koulou D
4 K. Rekik D
23 B. Mendy D
2 Javi Manquillo D
18 M. Isla D
20 A. Romao M
13 R. Cabella M
24 F. Thauvin M
14 G. N'Koudou F
22 M. Batshuayi F
Bench (7)
8 Lucas Silva
6 Rolando
17 B. Sarr
7 L. Ocampos
9 S. Fletcher
16 Y. Pelé
19 A. Barrada

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ruddy Buquet · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.