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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Aston Villa

T T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

25%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

34%

31%

Both score Ø 39%

53%

25%

Average goals

2,1

2,0

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

12 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Derby 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	32	22	3	7	+37	69
2	Brighton	32	20	8	4	+28	68
3	Leeds	34	19	4	11	+12	61
4	Huddersfield	29	19	4	6	+10	61
5	Reading	30	17	6	7	+10	57
6	Sheffield Weds	32	15	7	10	+6	52
7	Norwich	33	15	6	12	+11	51
8	Fulham	30	13	10	7	+13	49
9	Barnsley	33	14	7	12	+4	49
10	Preston	33	13	10	10	+4	49
11	Derby	32	13	9	10	+7	48
12	Cardiff	33	13	6	14	-2	45
13	Birmingham	34	11	10	13	-13	43
14	Ipswich	33	10	11	12	-7	41
15	Brentford	32	11	7	14	+0	40
16	QPR	33	11	7	15	-10	40
17	Aston Villa	32	8	12	12	-8	36
18	Nott'm Forest	33	10	6	17	-12	36
19	Burton Albion	34	9	9	16	-13	36
20	Wolves	32	9	8	15	-5	35
21	Bristol City	32	9	5	18	-6	32
22	Wigan	33	7	9	17	-10	30
23	Blackburn	32	7	9	16	-13	30
24	Rotherham	33	4	5	24	-43	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	16	12	3	1	+24	39
2	Leeds	18	12	2	4	+12	38
3	Norwich	16	11	2	3	+21	35
4	Huddersfield	14	11	2	1	+12	35
5	Newcastle	16	11	1	4	+20	34
6	Reading	16	10	4	2	+12	34
7	Sheffield Weds	15	10	1	4	+8	31
8	Preston	17	8	4	5	+7	28
9	Derby	17	7	6	4	+7	27
10	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+5	27
11	Cardiff	17	8	2	7	+3	26
12	Aston Villa	15	6	7	2	+6	25
13	Ipswich	17	6	7	4	+2	25
14	Birmingham	17	7	4	6	-2	25
15	Burton Albion	17	7	3	7	+1	24
16	Brentford	15	6	5	4	+9	23
17	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
18	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	+0	23
19	Barnsley	17	6	5	6	-1	23
20	Blackburn	16	5	5	6	-2	20
21	QPR	17	5	4	8	-8	19
22	Rotherham	16	4	4	8	-5	16
23	Wolves	16	4	3	9	-7	15
24	Wigan	16	3	5	8	-6	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	16	11	2	3	+17	35
2	Brighton	16	8	5	3	+4	29
3	Fulham	15	7	5	3	+9	26
4	Barnsley	16	8	2	6	+5	26
5	Huddersfield	15	8	2	5	-2	26
6	Leeds	16	7	2	7	+0	23
7	Reading	14	7	2	5	-2	23
8	Derby	15	6	3	6	+0	21
9	QPR	16	6	3	7	-2	21
10	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-2	21
11	Preston	16	5	6	5	-3	21
12	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
13	Cardiff	16	5	4	7	-5	19
14	Birmingham	17	4	6	7	-11	18
15	Brentford	17	5	2	10	-9	17
16	Wigan	17	4	4	9	-4	16
17	Ipswich	16	4	4	8	-9	16
18	Norwich	17	4	4	9	-10	16
19	Burton Albion	17	2	6	9	-14	12
20	Aston Villa	17	2	5	10	-14	11
21	Blackburn	16	2	4	10	-11	10
22	Bristol City	16	2	3	11	-6	9
23	Nott'm Forest	17	2	3	12	-17	9
24	Rotherham	17	0	1	16	-38	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.