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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Derby

T S U T S

0–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

2,0

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Aston Villa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+6	8
3	Wolves	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Fulham	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	QPR	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Brentford	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Bristol City	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Birmingham	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	+2	4
15	Wigan	4	1	1	2	+1	4
16	Burton Albion	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Ipswich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Sheffield Weds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Reading	4	1	1	2	-4	4
22	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	-5	4
23	Preston	4	1	0	3	-1	3
24	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Barnsley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Huddersfield	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Burton Albion	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-3	1
24	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Preston	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Brighton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Wigan	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-4	0
22	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-5	0
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.