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Ligue 1
Referee: Sébastien Desiage
Lille
S T T T S
2–3
Full-time
Bordeaux
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Bordeaux
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,2
This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 35%
31%
38%
Points per game
1,1
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
38%
42%
Both score Ø 46%
50%
42%
Average goals
2,2
2,4
Scored
0,9
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%
7 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 12
6 Yellow cards 2
2 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 15. · Bordeaux 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Monaco 27 19 5 3 +53 62
2 Nice 27 17 8 2 +23 59
3 Paris SG 26 17 5 4 +32 56
4 Lyon 25 14 1 10 +18 43
5 St Etienne 26 10 9 7 +10 39
6 Marseille 26 11 6 9 +4 39
7 Bordeaux 26 10 9 7 +1 39
8 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 +3 34
9 Guingamp 27 9 7 11 -4 34
10 Rennes 26 8 9 9 -6 33
11 Nantes 26 9 6 11 -13 33
12 Montpellier 27 8 8 11 -6 32
13 Angers 26 8 6 12 -11 30
14 Metz 25 8 6 11 -20 30
15 Lille 26 8 5 13 -8 29
16 Caen 26 8 4 14 -17 28
17 Dijon 27 6 9 12 -7 27
18 Nancy 26 7 6 13 -16 27
19 Bastia 25 5 8 12 -11 23
20 Lorient 26 6 4 16 -25 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Bordeaux
16′
V. Vada 0–1
G. Laborde
Julian Palmieri 🟨
36′
Ibrahim Amadou 🟨
40′
42′
🟨 Valentín Vada
Half-time 0–1
Éder 🔁
↦ E. Bauthéac
46′
Rony Lopes 🔁
↦ Y. Benzia
60′
61′
🔁 J. Plašil
↦ V. Vada
Xeka 🟨
66′
1–1 N. de Préville
66′
2–1 Éder
67′
75′
🔁 J. Ménez
↦ V. Jovanović
75′
🔁 A. Ounas
↦ Malcom
78′
A. Ounas 2–2
J. Ménez
Julian Palmieri 🟨
80′
Julian Palmieri 🟥
80′
R. Mavuba 🔁
↦ N. de Préville
81′
82′
A. Ounas 2–3
G. Laborde
Sébastien Corchia 🟨
89′
Rio Mavuba 🟨
90′
Rio Mavuba 🟥
90′
90′
🟨 Milan Gajić
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
1 V. Enyeama G
18 F. Béria D
15 J. Palmieri D
2 S. Corchia D
22 J. Alonso D
11 E. Bauthéac M
6 I. Amadou M
8 Xeka M
12 N. de Préville F
9 Y. Benzia M
7 A. El Ghazi M
Bench (7)
19 Éder
17 Rony Lopes
24 R. Mavuba
10 R. Kishna
16 M. Maignan
27 N. Sliti
4 Gabriel

Coach: F. Passi

Bordeaux

4-3-3
16 C. Carrasso G
3 D. Contento D
5 N. Pallois D
2 M. Gajić D
4 V. Jovanović D
14 J. Toulalan D
13 Y. Sankhare M
23 V. Vada M
24 G. Laborde F
25 Malcom F
11 F. Kamano F
Bench (7)
18 J. Plašil
7 J. Ménez
17 A. Ounas
1 P. Bernardoni
6 I. Lewczuk
8 M. Arambarri
21 T. Pellenard

Coach: J. Gourvennec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Sébastien Desiage · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.