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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Derby

T S U U T

1–0

Full-time

Preston

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

0,5

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

15 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Preston 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Reading	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	1
22	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.