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Championship

Referee: Richard Clark

Preston

U S U T T

1–2

Full-time

Derby

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

20%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,2

1,8

Scored

0,4

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

20%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,2

1,8

Scored

0,4

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 17. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Hull	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	QPR	6	3	1	2	+1	10
4	Ipswich	6	3	1	2	-1	10
5	Reading	6	2	3	1	+5	9
6	Cardiff	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+4	8
8	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Charlton	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+0	8
12	Leeds	5	1	4	0	+1	7
13	Milton Keynes Dons	5	2	1	2	+1	7
14	Wolves	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Fulham	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Preston	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Derby	5	0	4	1	-1	4
20	Bristol City	5	1	1	3	-4	4
21	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-2	3
22	Huddersfield	5	0	3	2	-3	3
23	Bolton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
24	Rotherham	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Reading	3	1	2	0	+4	5
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	QPR	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Milton Keynes Dons	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Ipswich	3	1	1	1	-3	4
14	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Charlton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.