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Championship

Referee: Kevin Friend

Reading

U S U T U

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 22. · Aston Villa 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Wolves	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Ipswich	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Nott'm Forest	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Hull	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Fulham	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Barnsley	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Bolton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brentford	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Reading	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	1
24	Burton Albion	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Hull	2	1	0	1	+2	3
5	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.