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Championship

Referee: Simon Hooper

Middlesbrough

S S S T S

0–3

Full-time

Derby

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

This season — Championship · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 49%

47%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

41%

44%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 6

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	18	13	2	3	+19	41
2	Cardiff	18	11	4	3	+12	37
3	Sheffield United	18	12	0	6	+11	36
4	Bristol City	18	8	7	3	+9	31
5	Leeds	19	9	2	8	+5	29
6	Middlesbrough	17	8	4	5	+9	28
7	Aston Villa	16	8	4	4	+8	28
8	Derby	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	Nott'm Forest	18	9	0	9	-1	27
10	Ipswich	17	8	2	7	+4	26
11	Sheffield Weds	18	6	7	5	+2	25
12	Preston	18	6	7	5	+1	25
13	Brentford	18	5	8	5	+2	23
14	Norwich	18	6	5	7	-6	23
15	Fulham	16	5	7	4	+1	22
16	QPR	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Barnsley	18	5	5	8	-2	20
18	Millwall	18	4	7	7	+0	19
19	Reading	17	5	4	8	-3	19
20	Hull	18	4	6	8	-2	18
21	Birmingham	18	4	3	11	-18	15
22	Burton Albion	18	3	5	10	-23	14
23	Bolton	18	2	7	9	-16	13
24	Sunderland	18	1	8	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Cardiff	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Sheffield United	9	7	0	2	+9	21
4	Nott'm Forest	9	6	0	3	+5	18
5	Middlesbrough	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	QPR	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Derby	8	5	1	2	+8	16
8	Ipswich	9	5	1	3	+6	16
9	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+5	16
10	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+4	15
11	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+6	14
12	Millwall	9	4	2	3	+4	14
13	Aston Villa	7	4	2	1	+4	14
14	Birmingham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
15	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	13
16	Brentford	9	2	6	1	+2	12
17	Hull	9	3	2	4	+7	11
18	Barnsley	10	3	2	5	-2	11
19	Norwich	9	2	4	3	-2	10
20	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
21	Reading	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Bolton	9	2	2	5	-7	8
23	Burton Albion	9	2	1	6	-12	7
24	Sunderland	9	0	4	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	9	6	1	2	+9	19
2	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+5	16
3	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+0	16
4	Sheffield United	9	5	0	4	+2	15
5	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-1	15
6	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	+4	14
7	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
8	Norwich	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Preston	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
11	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+4	11
12	Reading	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Brentford	9	3	2	4	+0	11
14	Ipswich	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Barnsley	8	2	3	3	+0	9
16	Sheffield Weds	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Nott'm Forest	9	3	0	6	-6	9
18	Sunderland	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Hull	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Burton Albion	9	1	4	4	-11	7
21	Millwall	9	0	5	4	-4	5
22	Bolton	9	0	5	4	-9	5
23	QPR	9	0	4	5	-10	4
24	Birmingham	9	0	1	8	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.