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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Ipswich

S T S T U

1–2

Full-time

Derby

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

This season — Championship · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

46%

57%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

46%

39%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 9. · Derby 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	24	17	4	3	+26	55
2	Bristol City	24	13	8	3	+15	47
3	Cardiff	25	14	5	6	+12	47
4	Derby	23	13	5	5	+17	44
5	Leeds	24	13	3	8	+10	42
6	Sheffield United	24	13	2	9	+10	41
7	Preston	25	10	10	5	+5	40
8	Middlesbrough	23	11	4	8	+9	37
9	Ipswich	24	11	3	10	+4	36
10	Aston Villa	22	9	7	6	+7	34
11	Brentford	24	8	10	6	+5	34
12	Fulham	22	9	7	6	+3	34
13	Nott'm Forest	24	10	1	13	-8	31
14	Sheffield Weds	24	7	9	8	+1	30
15	Millwall	25	7	9	9	+0	30
16	Norwich	24	8	6	10	-6	30
17	Reading	24	7	6	11	-3	27
18	QPR	25	6	9	10	-9	27
19	Hull	24	5	8	11	-4	23
20	Barnsley	24	5	7	12	-11	22
21	Burton Albion	24	5	5	14	-26	20
22	Sunderland	24	3	10	11	-14	19
23	Bolton	24	4	7	13	-20	19
24	Birmingham	24	4	5	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Cardiff	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Derby	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Sheffield United	12	8	1	3	+11	25
5	Millwall	13	7	3	3	+8	24
6	Bristol City	12	7	3	2	+8	24
7	Ipswich	12	7	2	3	+10	23
8	Middlesbrough	12	7	2	3	+6	23
9	Leeds	12	6	3	3	+8	21
10	Nott'm Forest	12	7	0	5	+1	21
11	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+6	19
13	Brentford	12	4	7	1	+5	19
14	QPR	12	5	4	3	+2	19
15	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+3	17
16	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	17
17	Hull	12	4	3	5	+7	15
18	Norwich	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-4	14
20	Birmingham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
21	Reading	12	3	4	5	-1	13
22	Barnsley	12	3	3	6	-5	12
23	Sunderland	12	1	5	6	-7	8
24	Burton Albion	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	8	2	2	+11	26
2	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+7	23
3	Leeds	12	7	0	5	+2	21
4	Preston	13	5	5	3	+1	20
5	Cardiff	12	6	2	4	+0	20
6	Derby	11	5	4	2	+4	19
7	Fulham	11	5	2	4	+2	17
8	Sheffield United	12	5	1	6	-1	16
9	Norwich	12	5	1	6	-5	16
10	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+1	15
11	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+0	15
12	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	+3	14
13	Reading	12	4	2	6	-2	14
14	Sheffield Weds	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Ipswich	12	4	1	7	-6	13
16	Burton Albion	12	3	4	5	-10	13
17	Sunderland	12	2	5	5	-7	11
18	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Nott'm Forest	12	3	1	8	-9	10
20	Hull	12	1	5	6	-11	8
21	QPR	13	1	5	7	-11	8
22	Millwall	12	0	6	6	-8	6
23	Bolton	12	0	5	7	-16	5
24	Birmingham	12	0	3	9	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.