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Championship

Referee: David Coote

Derby

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Burton Albion

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Burton Albion

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Championship · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 33%

50%

16%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

47%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,6

0,6

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Burton Albion 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	19	14	2	3	+23	44
2	Cardiff	20	13	4	3	+16	43
3	Sheffield United	19	12	1	6	+11	37
4	Bristol City	19	9	7	3	+10	34
5	Aston Villa	18	9	5	4	+10	32
6	Derby	18	9	4	5	+8	31
7	Leeds	20	9	3	8	+5	30
8	Ipswich	19	9	2	8	+3	29
9	Middlesbrough	18	8	4	6	+6	28
10	Nott'm Forest	19	9	0	10	-3	27
11	Sheffield Weds	19	6	8	5	+2	26
12	Preston	19	6	8	5	+1	26
13	Fulham	17	6	7	4	+2	25
14	Brentford	19	5	9	5	+2	24
15	Norwich	20	6	6	8	-8	24
16	Reading	19	6	5	8	+0	23
17	QPR	19	5	7	7	-6	22
18	Barnsley	19	5	5	9	-5	20
19	Millwall	19	4	7	8	-1	19
20	Hull	19	4	6	9	-3	18
21	Birmingham	19	4	4	11	-18	16
22	Sunderland	19	2	8	9	-10	14
23	Burton Albion	19	3	5	11	-25	14
24	Bolton	19	2	7	10	-20	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Cardiff	10	7	3	0	+14	24
3	Sheffield United	10	7	1	2	+9	22
4	QPR	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Nott'm Forest	10	6	0	4	+3	18
6	Aston Villa	8	5	2	1	+6	17
7	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+2	17
8	Derby	9	5	1	3	+7	16
9	Ipswich	9	5	1	3	+6	16
10	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+5	16
11	Leeds	10	4	3	3	+6	15
12	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+4	15
13	Millwall	9	4	2	3	+4	14
14	Birmingham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
15	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	13
16	Brentford	9	2	6	1	+2	12
17	Reading	10	3	3	4	+0	12
18	Hull	10	3	2	5	+6	11
19	Fulham	9	2	5	2	-1	11
20	Barnsley	10	3	2	5	-2	11
21	Norwich	10	2	5	3	-2	11
22	Bolton	9	2	2	5	-7	8
23	Burton Albion	10	2	1	7	-14	7
24	Sunderland	9	0	4	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	9	6	1	2	+9	19
2	Bristol City	10	5	4	1	+6	19
3	Cardiff	10	6	1	3	+2	19
4	Aston Villa	10	4	3	3	+4	15
5	Sheffield United	9	5	0	4	+2	15
6	Derby	9	4	3	2	+1	15
7	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-1	15
8	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Preston	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Ipswich	10	4	1	5	-3	13
11	Norwich	10	4	1	5	-6	13
12	Brentford	10	3	3	4	+0	12
13	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+4	11
14	Reading	9	3	2	4	+0	11
15	Sheffield Weds	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Sunderland	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	Barnsley	9	2	3	4	-3	9
18	Nott'm Forest	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Hull	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Burton Albion	9	1	4	4	-11	7
21	Millwall	10	0	5	5	-5	5
22	Bolton	10	0	5	5	-13	5
23	QPR	9	0	4	5	-10	4
24	Birmingham	10	0	2	8	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.