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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Fiorentina

U S U U S

1–1

Full-time

Milan

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

39%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

56%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

18 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 5

6 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Milan 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	19	15	3	1	+29	48
2	Juventus	18	14	2	2	+31	44
3	Inter	18	12	4	2	+20	40
4	Roma	17	12	2	3	+17	38
5	Lazio	17	11	3	3	+21	36
6	Sampdoria	17	8	3	6	+6	27
7	Atalanta	18	7	6	5	+5	27
8	Fiorentina	18	7	5	6	+8	26
9	Udinese	17	8	0	9	+5	24
10	Torino	18	5	9	4	-2	24
11	Milan	18	7	3	8	-3	24
12	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-3	24
13	Chievo	18	5	6	7	-11	21
14	Sassuolo	18	6	2	10	-16	20
15	Genoa	18	4	5	9	-7	17
16	Cagliari	18	5	2	11	-13	17
17	Spal	18	3	6	9	-12	15
18	Crotone	19	4	3	12	-24	15
19	Verona	18	3	4	11	-19	13
20	Benevento	18	0	1	17	-32	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	1	1	+18	25
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Roma	9	7	0	2	+8	21
4	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+14	20
5	Sampdoria	8	6	0	2	+12	18
6	Atalanta	9	5	3	1	+9	18
7	Udinese	10	5	0	5	+4	15
8	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+10	14
9	Fiorentina	8	4	2	2	+5	14
10	Milan	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Chievo	9	3	3	3	-2	12
12	Crotone	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Torino	8	2	4	2	+1	10
14	Spal	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Cagliari	9	3	1	5	-4	10
16	Bologna	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Verona	9	2	1	6	-9	7
19	Genoa	9	1	2	6	-7	5
20	Benevento	9	0	1	8	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+15	28
2	Lazio	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Juventus	8	6	1	1	+13	19
4	Inter	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Roma	8	5	2	1	+9	17
6	Bologna	9	5	0	4	+1	15
7	Torino	10	3	5	2	-3	14
8	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	+3	12
9	Genoa	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Sassuolo	9	4	0	5	-10	12
11	Milan	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Udinese	7	3	0	4	+1	9
13	Atalanta	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Chievo	9	2	3	4	-9	9
16	Cagliari	9	2	1	6	-9	7
17	Verona	9	1	3	5	-10	6
18	Spal	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Crotone	9	1	1	7	-18	4
20	Benevento	9	0	0	9	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.