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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Aston Villa

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 27/30 matches

Win Ø 40%

52%

27%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

52%

27%

Both score Ø 43%

48%

37%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	31	22	5	4	+33	71
2	Derby	30	16	9	5	+24	57
3	Cardiff	30	16	7	7	+18	55
4	Bristol City	31	14	10	7	+9	52
5	Fulham	29	14	9	6	+17	51
6	Aston Villa	27	14	7	6	+17	49
7	Preston	31	12	13	6	+8	49
8	Sheffield United	31	15	4	12	+7	49
9	Middlesbrough	29	14	5	10	+12	47
10	Brentford	31	11	11	9	+3	44
11	Leeds	31	13	5	13	+3	44
12	Ipswich	31	13	5	13	+2	44
13	Norwich	31	12	8	11	-3	44
14	Millwall	31	9	12	10	+2	39
15	QPR	31	9	9	13	-11	36
16	Nott'm Forest	31	11	2	18	-15	35
17	Sheffield Weds	31	7	13	11	-6	34
18	Reading	31	8	8	15	-7	32
19	Bolton	30	7	9	14	-19	30
20	Birmingham	30	8	6	16	-19	30
21	Hull	31	6	11	14	-5	29
22	Barnsley	31	6	10	15	-15	28
23	Sunderland	31	5	11	15	-21	26
24	Burton Albion	31	6	7	18	-34	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Derby	16	9	4	3	+16	31
3	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
4	Sheffield United	16	9	2	5	+10	29
5	Aston Villa	13	8	4	1	+14	28
6	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+8	28
7	Ipswich	16	8	3	5	+9	27
8	Millwall	16	7	6	3	+8	27
9	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	+6	27
10	Fulham	14	7	5	2	+12	26
11	Brentford	16	6	8	2	+8	26
12	QPR	15	7	4	4	+1	25
13	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
14	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+4	22
15	Bolton	16	6	4	6	-2	22
16	Nott'm Forest	16	7	0	9	-6	21
17	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+0	20
18	Birmingham	15	6	2	7	-6	20
19	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
20	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
21	Barnsley	16	3	6	7	-7	15
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	15	2	5	8	-9	11
24	Burton Albion	15	2	2	11	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Derby	14	7	5	2	+8	26
3	Fulham	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	16	6	7	3	+4	25
5	Cardiff	16	7	4	5	+2	25
6	Bristol City	15	6	6	3	+1	24
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
8	Leeds	16	7	1	8	-1	22
9	Aston Villa	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+6	20
11	Sheffield United	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Reading	16	5	4	7	-1	19
13	Brentford	15	5	3	7	-5	18
14	Ipswich	15	5	2	8	-7	17
15	Burton Albion	16	4	5	7	-14	17
16	Sheffield Weds	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Sunderland	16	3	6	7	-12	15
18	Nott'm Forest	15	4	2	9	-9	14
19	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
20	Millwall	15	2	6	7	-6	12
21	QPR	16	2	5	9	-12	11
22	Hull	16	2	5	9	-12	11
23	Birmingham	15	2	4	9	-13	10
24	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.