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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Derby

T U U U U

1–4

Full-time

Sunderland

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Championship · 35/38 matches

Win Ø 30%

46%

13%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

43%

47%

Both score Ø 48%

43%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

60% Possession 40%

7 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Sunderland 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	39	26	7	6	+37	85
2	Cardiff	38	24	7	7	+29	79
3	Fulham	36	19	11	6	+27	68
4	Aston Villa	35	18	8	9	+22	62
5	Bristol City	39	16	14	9	+12	62
6	Derby	35	16	13	6	+22	61
7	Middlesbrough	37	18	7	12	+18	61
8	Millwall	39	16	13	10	+11	61
9	Sheffield United	39	18	7	14	+8	61
10	Preston	39	15	15	9	+8	60
11	Brentford	39	14	13	12	+8	55
12	Leeds	39	15	8	16	-2	53
13	Ipswich	38	15	7	16	-1	52
14	Norwich	39	13	13	13	-5	52
15	QPR	39	12	11	16	-11	47
16	Nott'm Forest	39	13	7	19	-13	46
17	Sheffield Weds	39	10	14	15	-8	44
18	Hull	38	9	12	17	-6	39
19	Reading	39	9	12	18	-12	39
20	Bolton	39	9	12	18	-24	39
21	Barnsley	39	7	13	19	-19	34
22	Birmingham	38	9	6	23	-29	33
23	Burton Albion	39	7	9	23	-42	30
24	Sunderland	38	5	13	20	-30	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	20	15	3	2	+24	48
2	Wolves	19	14	3	2	+25	45
3	Millwall	20	10	7	3	+12	37
4	Fulham	18	10	6	2	+19	36
5	Sheffield United	19	11	3	5	+13	36
6	Middlesbrough	19	11	3	5	+12	36
7	Aston Villa	17	10	5	2	+17	35
8	Bristol City	19	10	5	4	+13	35
9	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
10	QPR	19	9	5	5	+1	32
11	Brentford	20	7	10	3	+11	31
12	Leeds	20	8	5	7	+2	29
13	Ipswich	19	8	4	7	+5	28
14	Preston	19	7	7	5	+3	28
15	Bolton	19	8	4	7	-2	28
16	Norwich	20	6	8	6	-1	26
17	Nott'm Forest	19	8	2	9	-5	26
18	Hull	19	6	7	6	+8	25
19	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	+0	25
20	Birmingham	19	7	2	10	-7	23
21	Reading	20	4	7	9	-7	19
22	Barnsley	20	3	8	9	-10	17
23	Sunderland	19	2	6	11	-16	12
24	Burton Albion	19	2	4	13	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	20	12	4	4	+12	40
2	Fulham	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Preston	20	8	8	4	+5	32
4	Cardiff	18	9	4	5	+5	31
5	Derby	18	7	8	3	+6	29
6	Aston Villa	18	8	3	7	+5	27
7	Bristol City	20	6	9	5	-1	27
8	Norwich	19	7	5	7	-4	26
9	Middlesbrough	18	7	4	7	+6	25
10	Sheffield United	20	7	4	9	-5	25
11	Millwall	19	6	6	7	-1	24
12	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-3	24
13	Leeds	19	7	3	9	-4	24
14	Ipswich	19	7	3	9	-6	24
15	Reading	19	5	5	9	-5	20
16	Nott'm Forest	20	5	5	10	-8	20
17	Burton Albion	20	5	5	10	-19	20
18	Sheffield Weds	19	4	7	8	-8	19
19	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
20	Sunderland	19	3	7	9	-14	16
21	QPR	20	3	6	11	-12	15
22	Hull	19	3	5	11	-14	14
23	Bolton	20	1	8	11	-22	11
24	Birmingham	19	2	4	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.