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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Nott'm Forest

U U S S U

0–0

Full-time

Derby

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 36/34 matches

Win Ø 42%

36%

47%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 46%

47%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

6 Shots 15

0 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 11

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 15. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	36	23	7	6	+31	76
2	Cardiff	36	22	7	7	+25	73
3	Fulham	34	18	10	6	+25	64
4	Aston Villa	33	18	8	7	+25	62
5	Derby	34	16	12	6	+22	60
6	Middlesbrough	35	18	6	11	+19	60
7	Bristol City	37	15	13	9	+11	58
8	Preston	37	14	15	8	+9	57
9	Sheffield United	36	17	5	14	+6	56
10	Millwall	37	14	13	10	+7	55
11	Brentford	36	14	11	11	+10	53
12	Ipswich	36	15	7	14	+3	52
13	Leeds	37	14	8	15	-2	50
14	Norwich	36	12	12	12	-4	48
15	Nott'm Forest	36	13	5	18	-11	44
16	QPR	36	11	10	15	-12	43
17	Sheffield Weds	37	8	14	15	-12	38
18	Hull	36	8	12	16	-6	36
19	Reading	36	8	12	16	-9	36
20	Bolton	37	8	12	17	-24	36
21	Barnsley	36	7	11	18	-17	32
22	Birmingham	37	8	6	23	-32	30
23	Burton Albion	36	7	9	20	-36	30
24	Sunderland	37	5	13	19	-28	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	19	14	3	2	+22	45
2	Wolves	17	12	3	2	+20	39
3	Middlesbrough	18	11	3	4	+13	36
4	Aston Villa	16	10	5	1	+19	35
5	Fulham	17	10	5	2	+19	35
6	Millwall	19	9	7	3	+10	34
7	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
8	Bristol City	18	9	5	4	+12	32
9	Sheffield United	17	10	2	5	+11	32
10	QPR	19	9	5	5	+1	32
11	Brentford	17	7	8	2	+13	29
12	Ipswich	18	8	4	6	+8	28
13	Preston	19	7	7	5	+3	28
14	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+2	26
15	Hull	19	6	7	6	+8	25
16	Bolton	18	7	4	7	-3	25
17	Nott'm Forest	18	8	1	9	-5	25
18	Norwich	18	5	8	5	+0	23
19	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-3	22
20	Birmingham	18	6	2	10	-10	20
21	Reading	19	3	7	9	-8	16
22	Barnsley	17	3	6	8	-8	15
23	Sunderland	18	2	6	10	-14	12
24	Burton Albion	19	2	4	13	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	19	11	4	4	+11	37
2	Fulham	17	8	5	4	+6	29
3	Preston	18	7	8	3	+6	29
4	Derby	17	7	7	3	+6	28
5	Cardiff	17	8	4	5	+3	28
6	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+6	27
7	Bristol City	19	6	8	5	-1	26
8	Norwich	18	7	4	7	-4	25
9	Middlesbrough	17	7	3	7	+6	24
10	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-3	24
11	Leeds	19	7	3	9	-4	24
12	Ipswich	18	7	3	8	-5	24
13	Sheffield United	19	7	3	9	-5	24
14	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Reading	17	5	5	7	-1	20
16	Burton Albion	17	5	5	7	-13	20
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	4	9	-6	19
18	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
19	Sheffield Weds	18	3	7	8	-9	16
20	Sunderland	19	3	7	9	-14	16
21	QPR	17	2	5	10	-13	11
22	Hull	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Bolton	19	1	8	10	-21	11
24	Birmingham	19	2	4	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.