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Primeira Liga
Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
Rio Ave
T U T S T
2–0
Full-time
Estoril
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Estoril
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,8
0,3
Conceded
1,5
2,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-2,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 33%
44%
22%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
48%
56%
Both score Ø 43%
48%
37%
Average goals
2,5
2,9
Scored
1,2
0,9
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%
11 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
23 Free kicks against 22
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Estoril 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 27 22 4 1 +56 70
2 Benfica 27 21 5 1 +55 68
3 Sp Lisbon 27 20 5 2 +36 65
4 Sp Braga 27 20 1 6 +38 61
5 Maritimo 28 12 6 10 -8 42
6 Rio Ave 27 12 4 11 -2 40
7 Boavista 27 11 3 13 -9 36
8 Chaves 27 10 6 11 -10 36
9 Guimaraes 27 10 3 14 -14 33
10 Portimonense 27 8 7 12 -7 31
11 Tondela 27 8 5 14 -9 29
12 Belenenses 27 7 8 12 -13 29
13 Vitoria Setubal 28 6 10 12 -16 28
14 Aves 28 6 7 15 -14 25
15 Moreirense 27 6 7 14 -17 25
16 Pacos Ferreira 27 6 7 14 -19 25
17 Feirense 28 7 2 19 -17 23
18 Estoril 27 6 4 17 -30 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rio Ave Estoril
1–0 Pelé
12′
Pelé 🟨
34′
2–0 Chico Geraldes
Guedes
39′
43′
🟨 Victor Andrade
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 André Claro
↦ Bruno Gomes
46′
🔁 Pedro Rodrigues
↦ Eduardo
47′
🟨 Rafik Halliche
Marcelo 🟨
55′
Pedro Moreira 🔁
↦ Diego Lopes
70′
73′
🔁 Allano
↦ Gonçalo
Nuno Santos 🔁
↦ João Novais
84′
Francisco Geraldes 🟨
90′
90′
🟥 Mano
Gabrielzinho 🔁
↦ Chico Geraldes
95′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-2-3-1
1 Cássio
3 Lionn D
46 Marcelo D
5 Yuri Ribeiro D
4 Nélson Monte D
8 Tarantini M
25 Pelé M
17 João Novais M
10 Diego Lopes M
12 Chico Geraldes M
7 Guedes F
Bench (7)
6 Pedro Moreira
20 Nuno Santos
26 Gabrielzinho
9 Gelson
22 Eliseu Cassamá
71 Rui Vieira
96 Marcão Teixeira

Coach: Miguel Cardoso

Estoril

4-2-3-1
40 Renan Ribeiro G
7 Mano D
32 R. Halliche D
13 Gonçalo M
6 Dankler D
2 Ailton D
8 Eduardo M
17 Lucas Evangelista M
33 Victor Andrade M
77 Ewandro M
9 Bruno Gomes F
Bench (7)
22 André Claro
88 Pedro Rodrigues
11 Allano
4 Pedro Monteiro
12 Fernando Fonseca
29 J. Aguilar
31 Moreira

Coach: Ivo Vieira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.