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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Derby

S S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Ipswich

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Ipswich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Championship · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · Ipswich 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+6	7
3	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Millwall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Rotherham	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Birmingham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Bristol City	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Norwich	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	1
22	Hull	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0
24	QPR	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+5	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hull	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bolton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
23	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.