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Championship

Referee: Roger East

Swansea

T T S S T

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,0

5,2

Scored

1,7

3,2

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Championship · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 38%

39%

36%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

64%

Both score Ø 63%

52%

73%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 12. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	14	5	4	+15	47
2	Leeds	22	13	6	3	+16	45
3	West Brom	22	12	5	5	+19	41
4	Derby	22	11	6	5	+10	39
5	Middlesbrough	23	10	9	4	+9	39
6	Sheffield United	23	11	5	7	+9	38
7	Nott'm Forest	23	8	11	4	+9	35
8	Birmingham	23	8	10	5	+8	34
9	Stoke	23	8	10	5	+3	34
10	QPR	23	10	4	9	-4	34
11	Aston Villa	22	8	8	6	+8	32
12	Swansea	23	9	5	9	+2	32
13	Bristol City	23	8	7	8	+1	31
14	Blackburn	23	7	10	6	-5	31
15	Preston	23	7	7	9	-3	28
16	Hull	23	7	6	10	-6	27
17	Sheffield Weds	23	7	6	10	-11	27
18	Brentford	23	6	7	10	+0	25
19	Wigan	23	7	4	12	-10	25
20	Rotherham	23	4	10	9	-15	22
21	Reading	23	4	7	12	-9	19
22	Millwall	23	4	7	12	-11	19
23	Bolton	23	4	6	13	-16	18
24	Ipswich	23	2	9	12	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
2	Norwich	11	8	0	3	+5	24
3	Derby	11	6	4	1	+7	22
4	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+4	21
5	Wigan	12	6	3	3	+2	21
6	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+13	20
7	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+8	20
8	Aston Villa	12	5	5	2	+6	20
9	Preston	11	5	4	2	+8	19
10	Middlesbrough	11	5	4	2	+4	19
11	QPR	11	6	1	4	+3	19
12	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+3	19
13	Birmingham	11	4	6	1	+7	18
14	Sheffield United	11	5	3	3	+5	18
15	Blackburn	12	4	6	2	+2	18
16	Rotherham	12	4	6	2	-1	18
17	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+3	17
18	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	-2	17
19	Millwall	11	4	4	3	+2	16
20	Hull	12	4	3	5	-1	15
21	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	+0	13
22	Reading	12	3	2	7	-2	11
23	Ipswich	12	1	7	4	-5	10
24	Bolton	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	6	5	1	+10	23
2	West Brom	12	6	3	3	+6	21
3	Leeds	11	6	3	2	+4	21
4	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
5	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Derby	11	5	2	4	+3	17
8	Nott'm Forest	11	3	7	1	+6	16
9	Birmingham	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Swansea	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	QPR	12	4	3	5	-7	15
12	Stoke	11	2	7	2	-1	13
13	Blackburn	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	Aston Villa	10	3	3	4	+2	12
15	Hull	11	3	3	5	-5	12
16	Bolton	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Sheffield Weds	11	3	1	7	-9	10
18	Preston	12	2	3	7	-11	9
19	Reading	11	1	5	5	-7	8
20	Brentford	11	0	5	6	-8	5
21	Ipswich	11	1	2	8	-14	5
22	Wigan	11	1	1	9	-12	4
23	Rotherham	11	0	4	7	-14	4
24	Millwall	12	0	3	9	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.