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Bundesliga

Referee: Gunter Perl

Hoffenheim

T U T T U

3–2

Full-time

Mainz

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

1,3

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 29%

10%

48%

Points per game

0,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

38%

52%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 17. · Mainz 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	18	2	1	+43	56
2	Dortmund	21	15	3	3	+29	48
3	Leverkusen	21	10	5	6	+9	35
4	Hertha	21	10	5	6	+6	35
5	Schalke 04	21	10	3	8	+2	33
6	Mainz	21	10	3	8	+2	33
7	M'gladbach	21	10	2	9	+4	32
8	Wolfsburg	21	8	6	7	+3	30
9	FC Koln	21	7	8	6	-3	29
10	Hamburg	22	7	6	9	-5	27
11	Stuttgart	21	8	3	10	-8	27
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	21	7	5	9	-9	26
13	Darmstadt	21	6	6	9	-9	24
14	Ein Frankfurt	22	5	7	10	-10	22
15	Augsburg	21	5	6	10	-8	21
16	Werder Bremen	21	5	5	11	-17	20
17	Hoffenheim	21	2	9	10	-12	15
18	Hannover	21	4	2	15	-17	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	10	0	0	+31	30
2	Dortmund	10	9	1	0	+23	28
3	Wolfsburg	11	7	3	1	+16	24
4	M'gladbach	11	7	1	3	+8	22
5	Hertha	10	6	3	1	+7	21
6	Schalke 04	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Mainz	11	6	1	4	+2	19
8	Leverkusen	10	5	3	2	+9	18
9	FC Koln	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Stuttgart	11	5	1	5	-4	16
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	4	2	4	-1	14
12	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Hamburg	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Hoffenheim	10	1	5	4	-5	8
16	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-11	7
17	Hannover	10	2	0	8	-6	6
18	Werder Bremen	10	1	3	6	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	2	1	+12	26
2	Dortmund	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	Darmstadt	10	5	2	3	+2	17
4	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
5	Hamburg	11	4	3	4	-3	15
6	Mainz	10	4	2	4	+0	14
7	Hertha	11	4	2	5	-1	14
8	Werder Bremen	11	4	2	5	-6	14
9	Schalke 04	10	4	1	5	-1	13
10	FC Koln	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	3	3	5	-8	12
13	Stuttgart	10	3	2	5	-4	11
14	M'gladbach	10	3	1	6	-4	10
15	Ein Frankfurt	11	2	3	6	-7	9
16	Hannover	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Hoffenheim	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Wolfsburg	10	1	3	6	-13	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.