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Bundesliga
Referee: Robert Kampka
RB Leipzig
U T T S S
1–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,5
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 50%
63%
37%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
67%
63%
Both score Ø 60%
52%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,1
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%
14 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · Leverkusen 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 27 20 5 2 +53 65
2 RB Leipzig 27 17 4 6 +20 55
3 Hoffenheim 27 13 12 2 +24 51
4 Dortmund 27 14 8 5 +30 50
5 FC Koln 27 10 10 7 +8 40
6 Hertha 27 12 4 11 +1 40
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 8 10 -2 38
8 Freiburg 27 11 5 11 -12 38
9 M'gladbach 27 10 6 11 -3 36
10 Werder Bremen 28 10 6 12 -4 36
11 Leverkusen 27 10 5 12 -1 35
12 Schalke 04 27 9 7 11 +2 34
13 Wolfsburg 27 8 6 13 -12 30
14 Hamburg 27 8 6 13 -24 30
15 Mainz 27 8 5 14 -10 29
16 Augsburg 27 7 8 12 -17 29
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 27 7 4 16 -17 25
18 Darmstadt 27 4 3 20 -36 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

RB Leipzig Leverkusen
Willi Orbán 🟨
4′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ K. Bellarabi
58′
🟨 Wendell
69′
🔁 B. Henrichs
↦ Wendell
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ O. Burke
73′
87′
🔁 S. Kießling
↦ J. Brandt
Willi Orbán 🟨
88′
Willi Orbán 🟥
88′
D. Upamecano 🔁
↦ T. Werner
91′
1–0 Y. Poulsen
E. Forsberg
93′
D. Kaiser 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
32 P. Gulácsi G
33 M. Compper D
4 W. Orban D
13 S. Ilsanker M
31 D. Demme M
7 M. Sabitzer M
8 N. Keïta M
3 Bernardo D
19 O. Burke F
10 E. Forsberg M
11 T. Werner F
Bench (7)
9 Y. Poulsen
17 D. Upamecano
24 D. Kaiser
1 F. Coltorti
6 R. Khedira
20 B. Schmitz
27 D. Selke

Coach: R. Hasenhüttl

Leverkusen

4-4-2
1 B. Leno G
13 R. Hilbert D
21 Ö. Toprak D
18 Wendell D
16 T. Jedvaj D
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
38 K. Bellarabi M
44 K. Kampl M
29 K. Havertz M
31 K. Volland F
19 J. Brandt M
Bench (7)
9 L. Bailey
39 B. Henrichs
11 S. Kießling
6 A. Dragović
14 A. Mehmedi
20 C. Aránguiz
28 R. Özcan

Coach: T. Korkut

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Robert Kampka · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
30,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,03 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.