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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Birmingham

T U U U T

1–2

Full-time

Derby

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 34%

28%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

35%

Both score Ø 44%

58%

30%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

22 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 18. · Derby 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	41	26	8	7	+34	86
2	Newcastle	40	26	6	8	+40	84
3	Huddersfield	36	22	5	9	+8	71
4	Reading	37	21	7	9	+10	70
5	Leeds	40	21	6	13	+13	69
6	Fulham	38	16	13	9	+14	61
7	Preston	40	16	13	11	+11	61
8	Sheffield Weds	38	17	9	12	+8	60
9	Derby	40	16	11	13	+6	59
10	Norwich	40	16	9	15	+4	57
11	Aston Villa	40	15	12	13	+3	57
12	Brentford	40	16	8	16	+7	56
13	Barnsley	40	14	11	15	+0	53
14	Cardiff	40	14	10	16	-3	52
15	Wolves	39	14	9	16	+1	51
16	QPR	41	14	8	19	-8	50
17	Ipswich	40	11	16	13	-6	49
18	Birmingham	40	11	13	16	-18	46
19	Burton Albion	40	11	11	18	-14	44
20	Nott'm Forest	40	11	9	20	-12	42
21	Bristol City	40	11	8	21	-10	41
22	Blackburn	40	9	13	18	-14	40
23	Wigan	40	8	10	22	-17	34
24	Rotherham	40	4	5	31	-57	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	21	16	3	2	+32	51
2	Reading	20	13	5	2	+16	44
3	Leeds	20	13	3	4	+14	42
4	Newcastle	20	13	2	5	+20	41
5	Huddersfield	18	13	2	3	+13	41
6	Norwich	19	12	4	3	+23	40
7	Aston Villa	20	11	7	2	+14	40
8	Preston	21	11	5	5	+16	38
9	Derby	21	10	7	4	+11	37
10	Sheffield Weds	18	11	2	5	+10	35
11	Brentford	20	9	5	6	+13	32
12	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+7	31
13	Cardiff	20	9	4	7	+5	31
14	Ipswich	21	7	10	4	+5	31
15	Fulham	19	7	7	5	+4	28
16	Bristol City	19	8	4	7	+4	28
17	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+0	28
18	QPR	21	8	4	9	-3	28
19	Burton Albion	19	8	3	8	+0	27
20	Barnsley	21	6	9	6	-1	27
21	Birmingham	20	7	5	8	-5	26
22	Wolves	19	7	3	9	-3	24
23	Rotherham	20	4	4	12	-12	16
24	Wigan	19	3	6	10	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	20	13	4	3	+20	43
2	Brighton	20	10	5	5	+2	35
3	Fulham	19	9	6	4	+10	33
4	Huddersfield	18	9	3	6	-5	30
5	Wolves	20	7	6	7	+4	27
6	Leeds	20	8	3	9	-1	27
7	Barnsley	19	8	2	9	+1	26
8	Reading	17	8	2	7	-6	26
9	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	-2	25
10	Brentford	20	7	3	10	-6	24
11	Preston	19	5	8	6	-5	23
12	QPR	20	6	4	10	-5	22
13	Derby	19	6	4	9	-5	22
14	Cardiff	20	5	6	9	-8	21
15	Birmingham	20	4	8	8	-13	20
16	Wigan	21	5	4	12	-8	19
17	Ipswich	19	4	6	9	-11	18
18	Aston Villa	20	4	5	11	-11	17
19	Burton Albion	21	3	8	10	-14	17
20	Norwich	21	4	5	12	-19	17
21	Bristol City	21	3	4	14	-14	13
22	Blackburn	20	2	6	12	-14	12
23	Nott'm Forest	21	2	5	14	-19	11
24	Rotherham	20	0	1	19	-45	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.