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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

Bayern Munich

S S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

3,5

2,5

Conceded

0,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+1,7

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 63%

74%

52%

Points per game

2,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

56%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

41%

63%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,5

2,1

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	20	5	2	+53	65
2	RB Leipzig	28	18	4	6	+21	58
3	Hoffenheim	28	13	12	3	+23	51
4	Dortmund	27	14	8	5	+30	50
5	Freiburg	28	12	5	11	-11	41
6	FC Koln	28	10	10	8	+7	40
7	Hertha	27	12	4	11	+1	40
8	M'gladbach	28	11	6	11	-2	39
9	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	8	10	-2	38
10	Schalke 04	28	10	7	11	+5	37
11	Werder Bremen	28	10	6	12	-4	36
12	Leverkusen	28	10	5	13	-2	35
13	Hamburg	28	9	6	13	-23	33
14	Wolfsburg	28	8	6	14	-15	30
15	Mainz	28	8	5	15	-11	29
16	Augsburg	27	7	8	12	-17	29
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	27	7	4	16	-17	25
18	Darmstadt	27	4	3	20	-36	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	14	11	1	2	+16	34
2	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+39	33
3	Dortmund	13	10	3	0	+25	33
4	Hoffenheim	14	9	5	0	+18	32
5	Hertha	13	10	1	2	+13	31
6	Schalke 04	15	8	3	4	+14	27
7	FC Koln	14	7	5	2	+9	26
8	Freiburg	14	8	1	5	-4	25
9	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+9	24
10	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	6	2	+6	24
11	Hamburg	14	7	3	4	-4	24
12	Werder Bremen	14	6	1	7	+3	19
13	Mainz	14	5	4	5	+2	19
14	Leverkusen	14	5	4	5	+2	19
15	Darmstadt	14	4	3	7	-9	15
16	Wolfsburg	14	4	2	8	-7	14
17	Augsburg	14	3	5	6	-8	14
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+14	32
2	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+5	24
3	Hoffenheim	14	4	7	3	+5	19
4	Dortmund	14	4	5	5	+5	17
5	Werder Bremen	14	4	5	5	-7	17
6	Leverkusen	14	5	1	8	-4	16
7	Freiburg	14	4	4	6	-7	16
8	Wolfsburg	14	4	4	6	-8	16
9	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-9	15
10	M'gladbach	14	4	3	7	-11	15
11	FC Koln	14	3	5	6	-2	14
12	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	2	8	-8	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	4	1	9	-9	13
14	Schalke 04	13	2	4	7	-9	10
15	Mainz	14	3	1	10	-13	10
16	Hertha	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Hamburg	14	2	3	9	-19	9
18	Darmstadt	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.