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Bundesliga

Referee: Markus Schmidt

Hamburg

U U T T T

0–0

Full-time

Mainz

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

42%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

38%

58%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

18 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hamburg 17. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	19	3	2	+37	60
2	Dortmund	24	11	8	5	+19	41
3	Schalke 04	24	11	7	6	+8	40
4	Ein Frankfurt	24	11	6	7	+5	39
5	Leverkusen	24	10	8	6	+11	38
6	RB Leipzig	24	11	5	8	+4	38
7	M'gladbach	25	10	5	10	-4	35
8	Augsburg	24	8	8	8	+3	32
9	Hoffenheim	24	8	8	8	+0	32
10	Hannover	24	8	8	8	-2	32
11	Hertha	24	7	10	7	+0	31
12	Stuttgart	24	9	3	12	-7	30
13	Freiburg	24	6	11	7	-13	29
14	Werder Bremen	25	6	9	10	-6	27
15	Wolfsburg	24	4	13	7	-4	25
16	Mainz	24	6	6	12	-13	24
17	Hamburg	24	4	5	15	-17	17
18	FC Koln	24	4	5	15	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+25	32
2	Stuttgart	12	8	1	3	+5	25
3	RB Leipzig	12	7	3	2	+10	24
4	Hoffenheim	12	6	4	2	+7	22
5	Schalke 04	12	6	4	2	+6	22
6	Hannover	12	6	3	3	+6	21
7	Freiburg	12	5	6	1	+4	21
8	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	Dortmund	12	5	4	3	+11	19
10	Augsburg	12	5	4	3	+6	19
11	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+5	19
12	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+3	18
13	Mainz	12	5	2	5	-2	17
14	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	+0	16
15	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-1	16
16	Wolfsburg	12	2	7	3	-1	13
17	Hamburg	12	3	3	6	-4	12
18	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Dortmund	12	6	4	2	+8	22
3	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+2	21
4	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+6	19
5	Schalke 04	12	5	3	4	+2	18
6	Hertha	12	3	6	3	+1	15
7	M'gladbach	12	4	2	6	-6	14
8	RB Leipzig	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-3	13
10	Wolfsburg	12	2	6	4	-3	12
11	Werder Bremen	13	2	5	6	-6	11
12	Hannover	12	2	5	5	-8	11
13	Hoffenheim	12	2	4	6	-7	10
14	FC Koln	12	2	2	8	-12	8
15	Freiburg	12	1	5	6	-17	8
16	Mainz	12	1	4	7	-11	7
17	Stuttgart	12	1	2	9	-12	5
18	Hamburg	12	1	2	9	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.