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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Nott'm Forest

T T U U S

2–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 30%

35%

24%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

26%

Both score Ø 40%

47%

32%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 15. · Birmingham 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	34	22	7	5	+31	73
2	Cardiff	34	20	7	7	+23	67
3	Derby	33	16	11	6	+22	59
4	Fulham	32	16	10	6	+21	58
5	Aston Villa	31	16	8	7	+19	56
6	Sheffield United	34	17	4	13	+9	55
7	Middlesbrough	33	16	6	11	+16	54
8	Bristol City	34	14	12	8	+8	54
9	Preston	34	12	15	7	+7	51
10	Brentford	34	13	11	10	+9	50
11	Leeds	35	14	7	14	+1	49
12	Millwall	34	12	12	10	+5	48
13	Ipswich	34	14	6	14	+2	48
14	Norwich	34	12	11	11	-3	47
15	Nott'm Forest	34	12	4	18	-12	40
16	QPR	34	10	9	15	-13	39
17	Sheffield Weds	34	8	13	13	-7	37
18	Reading	34	8	10	16	-9	34
19	Bolton	34	8	10	16	-22	34
20	Hull	34	7	12	15	-6	33
21	Barnsley	34	7	11	16	-14	32
22	Birmingham	34	8	6	20	-29	30
23	Burton Albion	34	7	8	19	-34	29
24	Sunderland	34	5	12	17	-24	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	17	12	3	2	+20	39
2	Cardiff	17	12	3	2	+20	39
3	Middlesbrough	17	10	3	4	+11	33
4	Aston Villa	15	9	5	1	+16	32
5	Fulham	16	9	5	2	+16	32
6	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
7	Sheffield United	17	10	2	5	+11	32
8	Millwall	17	8	6	3	+9	30
9	Brentford	17	7	8	2	+13	29
10	Bristol City	17	8	5	4	+8	29
11	QPR	17	8	4	5	+0	28
12	Ipswich	17	8	3	6	+8	27
13	Leeds	17	7	5	5	+5	26
14	Preston	17	6	7	4	+3	25
15	Bolton	17	7	4	6	-1	25
16	Hull	17	5	7	5	+8	22
17	Norwich	17	5	7	5	+0	22
18	Nott'm Forest	17	7	1	9	-6	22
19	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-2	21
20	Birmingham	17	6	2	9	-9	20
21	Barnsley	17	3	6	8	-8	15
22	Reading	17	3	5	9	-8	14
23	Sunderland	17	2	6	9	-11	12
24	Burton Albion	17	2	3	12	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	17	10	4	3	+11	34
2	Cardiff	17	8	4	5	+3	28
3	Derby	16	7	6	3	+6	27
4	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+5	26
5	Preston	17	6	8	3	+4	26
6	Bristol City	17	6	7	4	+0	25
7	Norwich	17	7	4	6	-3	25
8	Aston Villa	16	7	3	6	+3	24
9	Sheffield United	17	7	2	8	-2	23
10	Leeds	18	7	2	9	-4	23
11	Middlesbrough	16	6	3	7	+5	21
12	Brentford	17	6	3	8	-4	21
13	Ipswich	17	6	3	8	-6	21
14	Reading	17	5	5	7	-1	20
15	Burton Albion	17	5	5	7	-13	20
16	Millwall	17	4	6	7	-4	18
17	Nott'm Forest	17	5	3	9	-6	18
18	Barnsley	17	4	5	8	-6	17
19	Sheffield Weds	17	3	7	7	-5	16
20	Sunderland	17	3	6	8	-13	15
21	QPR	17	2	5	10	-13	11
22	Hull	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Birmingham	17	2	4	11	-20	10
24	Bolton	17	1	6	10	-21	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.