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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Mainz

T S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Hamburg

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

36%

14%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

79%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

71%

36%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 11. · Hamburg 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+25	33
2	RB Leipzig	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Hoffenheim	15	6	9	0	+11	27
4	Hertha	14	8	3	3	+8	27
5	Dortmund	15	7	5	3	+16	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	5	2	+8	26
7	FC Koln	14	6	5	3	+6	23
8	Leverkusen	14	6	2	6	+0	20
9	Freiburg	14	6	1	7	-7	19
10	Schalke 04	14	5	2	7	+2	17
11	Mainz	14	5	2	7	-3	17
12	M'gladbach	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	Augsburg	14	3	5	6	-5	14
14	Werder Bremen	14	4	2	8	-14	14
15	Wolfsburg	14	2	4	8	-11	10
16	Hamburg	14	2	4	8	-16	10
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	2	3	9	-13	9
18	Darmstadt	14	2	2	10	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	20
2	Hertha	7	6	0	1	+9	18
3	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	Hoffenheim	8	4	4	0	+7	16
5	RB Leipzig	6	5	1	0	+7	16
6	FC Koln	7	4	3	0	+9	15
7	M'gladbach	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	3	0	+4	15
9	Freiburg	7	5	0	2	+0	15
10	Schalke 04	7	4	0	3	+6	12
11	Leverkusen	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Mainz	6	3	1	2	+2	10
13	Werder Bremen	7	3	0	4	-2	9
14	Darmstadt	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Augsburg	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Hamburg	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Wolfsburg	7	0	2	5	-8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+10	17
2	Bayern Munich	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Hoffenheim	7	2	5	0	+4	11
4	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	+4	11
5	Dortmund	8	2	3	3	+3	9
6	Leverkusen	7	3	0	4	-1	9
7	Hertha	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Augsburg	7	2	2	3	+0	8
9	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	-3	8
11	Mainz	8	2	1	5	-5	7
12	Schalke 04	7	1	2	4	-4	5
13	Hamburg	7	1	2	4	-6	5
14	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-12	5
15	Freiburg	7	1	1	5	-7	4
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	M'gladbach	6	0	1	5	-14	1
18	Darmstadt	7	0	0	7	-14	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.