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La Liga
Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo
Valencia
T S S T S
1–3
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,0
This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 50%
30%
70%
Points per game
1,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
44%
30%
Both score Ø 39%
52%
26%
Average goals
2,3
1,9
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,1
0,4
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%
10 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Valencia 10. · Ath Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 28 23 3 2 +56 72
2 Ath Madrid 27 19 4 4 +28 61
3 Real Madrid 28 18 6 4 +54 60
4 Villarreal 28 15 8 5 +14 53
5 Sevilla 28 12 9 7 +10 45
6 Ath Bilbao 28 13 5 10 +8 44
7 Celta 28 12 6 10 -11 42
8 Eibar 28 10 6 12 +0 36
9 Sociedad 28 9 8 11 -2 35
10 Valencia 27 8 10 9 +2 34
11 Betis 28 8 10 10 -10 34
12 Malaga 28 8 9 11 -1 33
13 La Coruna 28 6 15 7 -2 33
14 Las Palmas 28 8 6 14 -10 30
15 Espanol 27 8 4 15 -27 28
16 Getafe 28 7 6 15 -18 27
17 Vallecano 27 6 8 13 -21 26
18 Granada 28 7 5 16 -24 26
19 Sp Gijon 28 6 6 16 -20 24
20 Levante 28 5 6 17 -26 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -15 Ath Madrid – Valencia 2–1

Match report

Valencia Ath Madrid
24′
A. Griezmann 0–1
Koke
1–1 D. Cheryshev
Paco Alcácer
28′
Half-time 1–1
Danilo Barbosa 🔁
↦ E. Pérez
46′
Aderllan Santos 🟨
57′
Rodrigo 🔁
↦ D. Cheryshev
61′
63′
🔁 Fernando Torres
↦ M. Kranevitter
64′
🟨 Luciano Vietto
69′
🔁 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
↦ L. Vietto
72′
Fernando Torres 1–2
J. Giménez
Sofiane Feghouli 🟨
78′
Aderllan Santos 🟨
80′
Aderllan Santos 🟥
80′
Negredo 🔁
↦ Javi Fuego
84′
85′
Y. Ferreira Carrasco 1–3
A. Griezmann
88′
🔁 Óliver Torres
↦ A. Griezmann
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Valencia

1 Diego Alves G
6 Guilherme Siqueira D
5 S. Mustafi D
4 Aderllan Santos D
2 João Cancelo D
15 E. Pérez M
18 Javi Fuego M
8 S. Feghouli M
24 D. Cheryshev M
21 André Gomes M
9 Paco Alcácer F
Bench (7)
12 Danilo Barbosa
17 Rodrigo
7 Negredo
10 Dani Parejo
19 Barragán
23 A. Abdennour
25 M. Ryan

Ath Madrid

13 J. Oblak G
20 Juanfran D
3 Filipe Luis D
24 J. Giménez D
19 L. Hernández D
14 Gabi M
17 Saúl M
6 Koke M
8 M. Kranevitter M
7 A. Griezmann F
23 L. Vietto F
Bench (7)
9 Fernando Torres
21 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
10 Óliver Torres
1 Moyá
16 Á. Correa
18 Jesús Gámez
22 T. Partey

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.