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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Marseille

U S T U U

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 22%

30%

14%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

57%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 14. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	23	5	1	+53	74
2	Monaco	29	13	12	4	+10	51
3	Nice	29	12	8	9	+8	44
4	Caen	29	13	4	12	-6	43
5	Lyon	28	12	6	10	+10	42
6	St Etienne	29	12	6	11	+1	42
7	Rennes	28	10	11	7	+3	41
8	Nantes	27	10	10	7	+2	40
9	Angers	29	10	9	10	+0	39
10	Lorient	29	9	11	9	-1	38
11	Bastia	28	11	5	12	-2	38
12	Bordeaux	29	9	11	9	-6	38
13	Lille	29	8	13	8	+0	37
14	Marseille	27	8	12	7	+9	36
15	Montpellier	29	10	6	13	+3	36
16	Guingamp	28	8	8	12	-7	32
17	Reims	29	8	8	13	-9	32
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	28	6	11	11	-10	29
19	Toulouse	28	4	10	14	-20	22
20	Troyes	29	2	8	19	-38	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+32	36
2	Bastia	14	9	1	4	+9	28
3	Lyon	14	8	3	3	+14	27
4	Monaco	14	7	5	2	+8	26
5	Nice	15	8	2	5	+6	26
6	Bordeaux	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Lille	15	7	4	4	+6	25
8	St Etienne	14	7	3	4	+5	24
9	Lorient	14	6	5	3	+7	23
10	Nantes	14	6	5	3	+3	23
11	Caen	15	7	2	6	-5	23
12	Angers	15	5	7	3	+3	22
13	Montpellier	15	7	0	8	+2	21
14	Guingamp	14	5	5	4	+4	20
15	Reims	15	5	5	5	+3	20
16	Rennes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	6	4	-3	15
18	Marseille	14	2	8	4	+5	14
19	Toulouse	14	2	7	5	-2	13
20	Troyes	14	0	6	8	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	12	2	1	+21	38
2	Monaco	15	6	7	2	+2	25
3	Rennes	15	6	6	3	+4	24
4	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+4	22
5	Caen	14	6	2	6	-1	20
6	Nice	14	4	6	4	+2	18
7	St Etienne	15	5	3	7	-4	18
8	Nantes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
9	Angers	14	5	2	7	-3	17
10	Montpellier	14	3	6	5	+1	15
11	Lyon	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Lorient	15	3	6	6	-8	15
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	15	3	5	7	-7	14
14	Lille	14	1	9	4	-6	12
15	Guingamp	14	3	3	8	-11	12
16	Bordeaux	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Reims	14	3	3	8	-12	12
18	Bastia	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Toulouse	14	2	3	9	-18	9
20	Troyes	15	2	2	11	-26	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.