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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Napoli

S S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Milan

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 58%

68%

48%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

60%

44%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

19 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	26	18	4	4	+31	58
2	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+33	56
3	Fiorentina	26	16	4	6	+21	52
4	Roma	26	14	8	4	+25	50
5	Inter	26	14	6	6	+11	48
6	Milan	25	12	7	6	+10	43
7	Sassuolo	26	9	11	6	+1	38
8	Lazio	26	10	7	9	+0	37
9	Bologna	26	10	4	12	-2	34
10	Empoli	26	9	7	10	-5	34
11	Torino	26	8	8	10	+0	32
12	Chievo	26	8	7	11	-5	31
13	Atalanta	26	7	8	11	-5	29
14	Genoa	26	7	7	12	-4	28
15	Udinese	26	7	6	13	-18	27
16	Palermo	26	7	5	14	-20	26
17	Sampdoria	26	6	7	13	-9	25
18	Frosinone	26	6	5	15	-25	23
19	Carpi	26	4	8	14	-20	20
20	Verona	26	2	12	12	-19	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Fiorentina	13	10	1	2	+17	31
3	Roma	13	9	3	1	+19	30
4	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+13	29
5	Milan	13	8	3	2	+8	27
6	Inter	13	8	2	3	+7	26
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	24
8	Genoa	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	Sassuolo	13	5	6	2	+1	21
10	Torino	14	5	5	4	+5	20
11	Sampdoria	13	5	4	4	+4	19
12	Atalanta	13	5	4	4	+4	19
13	Frosinone	14	5	3	6	-6	18
14	Bologna	14	4	4	6	+0	16
15	Empoli	12	4	3	5	+0	15
16	Chievo	12	3	5	4	-1	14
17	Palermo	13	4	2	7	-5	14
18	Carpi	13	3	4	6	-4	13
19	Verona	14	2	6	6	-6	12
20	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	9	2	3	+18	29
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+14	24
3	Inter	13	6	4	3	+4	22
4	Fiorentina	13	6	3	4	+4	21
5	Roma	13	5	5	3	+6	20
6	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-5	19
7	Bologna	12	6	0	6	-2	18
8	Sassuolo	13	4	5	4	+0	17
9	Chievo	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Milan	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-9	15
12	Lazio	13	3	4	6	-10	13
13	Torino	12	3	3	6	-5	12
14	Palermo	13	3	3	7	-15	12
15	Atalanta	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Genoa	13	1	4	8	-9	7
17	Carpi	13	1	4	8	-16	7
18	Sampdoria	13	1	3	9	-13	6
19	Verona	12	0	6	6	-13	6
20	Frosinone	12	1	2	9	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.