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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Milan

S U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Genoa

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

46%

25%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

42%

29%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Genoa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	18	3	4	+31	57
2	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+33	56
3	Roma	25	13	8	4	+20	47
4	Fiorentina	24	14	4	6	+19	46
5	Inter	24	13	6	5	+10	45
6	Milan	24	11	7	6	+9	40
7	Lazio	25	10	6	9	+0	36
8	Sassuolo	25	8	11	6	+0	35
9	Empoli	25	9	7	9	-4	34
10	Chievo	25	8	7	10	-3	31
11	Bologna	24	9	3	12	-3	30
12	Torino	24	7	7	10	-2	28
13	Atalanta	24	7	7	10	-4	28
14	Udinese	24	7	6	11	-16	27
15	Palermo	24	7	5	12	-13	26
16	Genoa	24	6	7	11	-4	25
17	Sampdoria	24	6	6	12	-7	24
18	Frosinone	25	6	4	15	-25	22
19	Carpi	25	4	7	14	-20	19
20	Verona	25	1	12	12	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+13	29
3	Fiorentina	12	9	1	2	+16	28
4	Roma	12	8	3	1	+14	27
5	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	24
6	Milan	12	7	3	2	+7	24
7	Inter	12	7	2	3	+5	23
8	Torino	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Atalanta	12	5	4	3	+5	19
10	Sampdoria	12	5	3	4	+4	18
11	Genoa	12	5	3	4	+4	18
12	Sassuolo	12	4	6	2	+0	18
13	Frosinone	13	5	2	6	-6	17
14	Bologna	13	4	3	6	+0	15
15	Empoli	12	4	3	5	+0	15
16	Chievo	12	3	5	4	-1	14
17	Palermo	12	4	2	6	-3	14
18	Carpi	13	3	4	6	-4	13
19	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-8	12
20	Verona	13	1	6	6	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	9	1	3	+18	28
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+14	24
3	Inter	12	6	4	2	+5	22
4	Roma	13	5	5	3	+6	20
5	Empoli	13	5	4	4	-4	19
6	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Sassuolo	13	4	5	4	+0	17
8	Chievo	13	5	2	6	-2	17
9	Milan	12	4	4	4	+2	16
10	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-3	15
11	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-8	15
12	Lazio	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Palermo	12	3	3	6	-10	12
14	Torino	11	2	3	6	-7	9
15	Atalanta	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Genoa	12	1	4	7	-8	7
17	Sampdoria	12	1	3	8	-11	6
18	Verona	12	0	6	6	-13	6
19	Carpi	12	1	3	8	-16	6
20	Frosinone	12	1	2	9	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.