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Serie A
Referee: Massimiliano Irrati
Milan
U S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Udinese
T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Udinese
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,2
This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 39%
48%
30%
Points per game
1,7
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
43%
48%
Both score Ø 48%
48%
48%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
1,5
0,9
Conceded
1,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%
22 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 0
4 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 6. · Udinese 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 23 16 5 2 +33 53
2 Juventus 23 16 3 4 +28 51
3 Fiorentina 24 14 4 6 +19 46
4 Inter 24 13 6 5 +10 45
5 Roma 23 11 8 4 +17 41
6 Milan 23 11 6 6 +9 39
7 Sassuolo 23 8 9 6 +0 33
8 Lazio 24 9 6 9 -3 33
9 Empoli 23 9 6 8 -3 33
10 Bologna 24 9 3 12 -3 30
11 Torino 23 7 7 9 -1 28
12 Chievo 23 7 6 10 -4 27
13 Atalanta 23 7 6 10 -4 27
14 Udinese 23 7 5 11 -16 26
15 Genoa 24 6 7 11 -4 25
16 Palermo 23 7 4 12 -13 25
17 Sampdoria 23 6 6 11 -6 24
18 Carpi 23 4 7 12 -17 19
19 Frosinone 23 5 4 14 -24 19
20 Verona 24 1 12 11 -18 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Sep -15 Udinese – Milan 2–3

Match report

Milan Udinese
17′
P. Armero 0–1
27′
🟨 Emmanuel Badu
Riccardo Montolivo 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–1
M. Balotelli 🔁
↦ J. Kucka
46′
1–1 M. Niang
C. Bacca
48′
62′
🟨 Francesco Lodi
K. Boateng 🔁
↦ M. Niang
62′
64′
🔁 Guilherme
↦ F. Lodi
66′
🔁 D. Zapata
↦ Ryder Matos
74′
🔁 S. Widmer
↦ P. Armero
76′
🟨 Edenilson
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Milan

99 G. Donnarumma G
33 Alex D
20 I. Abate D
31 L. Antonelli D
13 A. Romagnoli D
18 R. Montolivo M
27 J. Kucka M
91 A. Bertolacci M
10 K. Honda M
70 C. Bacca F
19 M. Niang F
Bench (12)
45 M. Balotelli
72 K. Boateng
2 M. De Sciglio
7 J. Ménez
16 A. Poli
17 C. Zapata
23 A. Nocerino
25 S. Simič
32 C. Abbiati
73 M. Locatelli
96 D. Calabria
97 A. Livieri

Udinese

31 O. Karnezis G
30 Felipe D
5 Danilo D
17 P. Armero D
21 Edenilson M
2 M. Wagué D
22 Z. Kuzmanović M
20 F. Lodi M
7 E. Agyemang-Badu M
77 C. Théréau F
88 Ryder Matos F
Bench (12)
19 Guilherme
9 D. Zapata
27 S. Widmer
8 Bruno Fernandes
10 A. Di Natale
18 S. Perica
53 Ali Adnan
55 E. Hallfreðsson
75 T. Heurtaux
89 I. Piris
97 A. Meret
99 A. Balić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Massimiliano Irrati · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.