Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Milan
Udinese
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Napoli
|
23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | +33 | 53 |
| 2 |
Juventus
|
23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | +28 | 51 |
| 3 |
Fiorentina
|
24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | +19 | 46 |
| 4 |
Inter
|
24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | +10 | 45 |
| 5 |
Roma
|
23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | +17 | 41 |
| 6 |
Milan
|
23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | +9 | 39 |
| 7 |
Sassuolo
|
23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | +0 | 33 |
| 8 |
Lazio
|
24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 |
Empoli
|
23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 |
Bologna
|
24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 |
Chievo
|
23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 27 |
| 13 |
Atalanta
|
23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 27 |
| 14 |
Udinese
|
23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |
Genoa
|
24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 25 |
| 16 |
Palermo
|
23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 |
Sampdoria
|
23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 18 |
Carpi
|
23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 19 |
Frosinone
|
23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 19 |
| 20 |
Verona
|
24 | 1 | 12 | 11 | -18 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
G. Donnarumma
G
A. Romagnoli
D
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Palermo
Milan
Milan
Inter
Empoli
Milan
Milan
Fiorentina
Roma
Milan
Massimiliano Irrati · 66 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.