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Serie A

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli

Milan

S T S S T

0–4

Full-time

Napoli

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 11. · Napoli 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	5	1	1	+2	16
2	Fiorentina	6	5	0	1	+7	15
3	Lazio	7	5	0	2	-1	15
4	Roma	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Torino	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Chievo	7	3	3	1	+6	12
7	Sassuolo	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Sampdoria	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Atalanta	6	3	2	1	+3	11
10	Napoli	6	2	3	1	+5	9
11	Milan	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Juventus	7	2	2	3	+1	8
13	Palermo	7	2	1	4	-3	7
14	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Genoa	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Carpi	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Verona	7	0	4	3	-4	4
19	Frosinone	7	1	1	5	-6	4
20	Bologna	7	1	0	6	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Sampdoria	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Torino	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Fiorentina	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Inter	4	3	0	1	+0	9
6	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+6	7
7	Roma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Milan	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Juventus	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Carpi	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Palermo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Frosinone	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Bologna	3	1	0	2	-1	3
19	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Udinese	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	2	1	1	+3	7
2	Inter	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Sassuolo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Chievo	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Torino	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Juventus	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Palermo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Empoli	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-8	3
14	Napoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Verona	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Carpi	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Bologna	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.