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Serie A

Referee: Massimiliano Irrati

Roma

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 58%

56%

59%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

56%

52%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

56%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Fiorentina 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	27	19	4	4	+33	61
2	Napoli	27	17	7	3	+33	58
3	Roma	27	15	8	4	+27	53
4	Fiorentina	27	16	5	6	+21	53
5	Inter	27	14	6	7	+9	48
6	Milan	27	13	8	6	+11	47
7	Sassuolo	27	10	11	6	+3	41
8	Lazio	27	10	7	10	-2	37
9	Bologna	27	10	5	12	-2	35
10	Chievo	27	9	7	11	-4	34
11	Empoli	27	9	7	11	-7	34
12	Torino	27	8	8	11	-1	32
13	Atalanta	27	7	9	11	-5	30
14	Udinese	27	8	6	13	-16	30
15	Genoa	27	7	7	13	-5	28
16	Sampdoria	27	7	7	13	-7	28
17	Palermo	27	7	6	14	-20	27
18	Frosinone	27	6	5	16	-27	23
19	Carpi	27	4	9	14	-20	21
20	Verona	27	2	12	13	-21	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	10	3	0	+19	33
2	Fiorentina	14	10	2	2	+17	32
3	Juventus	13	10	2	1	+15	32
4	Roma	13	9	3	1	+19	30
5	Milan	14	9	3	2	+9	30
6	Inter	13	8	2	3	+7	26
7	Lazio	14	7	3	4	+8	24
8	Sampdoria	14	6	4	4	+6	22
9	Genoa	13	6	3	4	+5	21
10	Sassuolo	13	5	6	2	+1	21
11	Torino	14	5	5	4	+5	20
12	Atalanta	13	5	4	4	+4	19
13	Frosinone	14	5	3	6	-6	18
14	Chievo	13	4	5	4	+0	17
15	Bologna	14	4	4	6	+0	16
16	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-2	15
17	Palermo	14	4	3	7	-5	15
18	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-7	15
19	Carpi	14	3	5	6	-4	14
20	Verona	14	2	6	6	-6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	9	2	3	+18	29
2	Napoli	14	7	4	3	+14	25
3	Roma	14	6	5	3	+8	23
4	Inter	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Fiorentina	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Sassuolo	14	5	5	4	+2	20
7	Bologna	13	6	1	6	-2	19
8	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-5	19
9	Milan	13	4	5	4	+2	17
10	Chievo	14	5	2	7	-4	17
11	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-9	15
12	Lazio	13	3	4	6	-10	13
13	Torino	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Palermo	13	3	3	7	-15	12
15	Atalanta	14	2	5	7	-9	11
16	Genoa	14	1	4	9	-10	7
17	Carpi	13	1	4	8	-16	7
18	Sampdoria	13	1	3	9	-13	6
19	Verona	13	0	6	7	-15	6
20	Frosinone	13	1	2	10	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.