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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Fiorentina

S S S S T

1–2

Full-time

Roma

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

2,0

2,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 69%

75%

63%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

38%

88%

Average goals

2,6

3,8

Scored

1,9

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

70% Possession 30%

21 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

5 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 1. · Roma 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	8	6	0	2	+9	18
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+2	18
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Napoli	8	4	3	1	+10	15
5	Sassuolo	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	Lazio	8	5	0	3	-2	15
7	Sampdoria	9	4	2	3	+4	14
8	Torino	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Milan	9	4	1	4	-4	13
11	Chievo	8	3	3	2	+5	12
12	Juventus	9	3	3	3	+3	12
13	Palermo	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-4	10
16	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-4	10
17	Frosinone	9	2	1	6	-5	7
18	Bologna	9	2	0	7	-8	6
19	Verona	9	0	5	4	-7	5
20	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sampdoria	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Fiorentina	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Roma	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Torino	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Inter	5	3	1	1	+0	10
9	Genoa	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	Milan	4	3	0	1	-1	9
11	Juventus	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Sassuolo	4	2	2	0	+2	8
13	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
14	Empoli	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Frosinone	4	2	0	2	+1	6
16	Palermo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Carpi	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Roma	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
4	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+1	6
6	Palermo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+3	5
8	Chievo	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Juventus	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Torino	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Milan	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	Atalanta	5	1	1	3	-5	4
13	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-9	3
16	Verona	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Frosinone	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Carpi	4	0	1	3	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.