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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Fiorentina

T S S T T

3–3

Full-time

Napoli

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,8

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

41%

59%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

53%

65%

Both score Ø 59%

59%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 7

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	14	0	3	+22	42
2	Roma	17	11	2	4	+19	35
3	Napoli	17	10	4	3	+19	34
4	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+11	34
5	Milan	17	10	3	4	+7	33
6	Atalanta	18	10	2	6	+6	32
7	Inter	18	9	3	6	+7	30
8	Fiorentina	17	7	5	5	+4	26
9	Torino	17	7	4	6	+8	25
10	Chievo	17	7	4	6	+1	25
11	Udinese	17	7	3	7	+0	24
12	Genoa	17	6	5	6	+0	23
13	Sampdoria	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Bologna	17	5	5	7	-5	20
15	Cagliari	17	6	2	9	-16	20
16	Sassuolo	17	5	2	10	-8	17
17	Empoli	18	3	5	10	-16	14
18	Crotone	17	2	3	12	-18	9
19	Palermo	17	2	3	12	-19	9
20	Pescara	17	1	5	11	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	9	0	0	+18	27
2	Roma	8	8	0	0	+18	24
3	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+11	20
4	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	20
5	Milan	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Lazio	9	6	1	2	+10	19
7	Atalanta	9	6	0	3	+4	18
8	Torino	8	5	2	1	+10	17
9	Genoa	9	4	4	1	+7	16
10	Sampdoria	8	5	1	2	+4	16
11	Fiorentina	8	4	4	0	+4	16
12	Cagliari	8	5	1	2	+0	16
13	Chievo	9	4	3	2	+2	15
14	Udinese	9	4	2	3	+2	14
15	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+2	14
16	Sassuolo	8	4	0	4	-2	12
17	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Empoli	9	2	2	5	-10	8
19	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Palermo	8	0	0	8	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	5	0	3	+4	15
2	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+1	15
3	Napoli	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
5	Milan	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Roma	9	3	2	4	+1	11
7	Fiorentina	9	3	1	5	+0	10
8	Chievo	8	3	1	4	-1	10
9	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-2	10
10	Inter	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Palermo	9	2	3	4	-5	9
12	Torino	9	2	2	5	-2	8
13	Genoa	8	2	1	5	-7	7
14	Empoli	9	1	3	5	-6	6
15	Sampdoria	9	1	3	5	-7	6
16	Bologna	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Sassuolo	9	1	2	6	-6	5
18	Pescara	8	1	1	6	-8	4
19	Cagliari	9	1	1	7	-16	4
20	Crotone	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.