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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Crotone

S U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,8

Scored

1,0

3,5

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 40%

22%

57%

Points per game

0,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

49%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

51%

59%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Crotone 18. · Lazio 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	29	4	5	+50	91
2	Roma	38	28	3	7	+52	87
3	Napoli	38	26	8	4	+55	86
4	Atalanta	38	21	9	8	+21	72
5	Lazio	37	21	7	9	+25	70
6	Milan	38	18	9	11	+12	63
7	Inter	37	18	5	14	+20	59
8	Fiorentina	37	16	11	10	+6	59
9	Torino	37	12	14	11	+3	50
10	Sampdoria	38	12	12	14	-6	48
11	Cagliari	38	14	5	19	-21	47
12	Sassuolo	37	13	7	17	-3	46
13	Udinese	37	12	9	16	-6	45
14	Chievo	38	12	7	19	-18	43
15	Bologna	38	11	8	19	-18	41
16	Genoa	38	9	9	20	-26	36
17	Empoli	37	8	8	21	-31	32
18	Crotone	37	8	7	22	-26	31
19	Palermo	37	5	8	24	-45	23
20	Pescara	37	3	8	26	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	18	1	0	+39	55
2	Roma	19	16	1	2	+32	49
3	Napoli	19	13	4	2	+25	43
4	Atalanta	19	12	4	3	+13	40
5	Lazio	19	12	2	5	+17	38
6	Milan	19	12	2	5	+12	38
7	Fiorentina	18	10	7	1	+11	37
8	Cagliari	19	11	3	5	+4	36
9	Inter	18	10	3	5	+19	33
10	Torino	18	8	8	2	+10	32
11	Sampdoria	19	8	6	5	+5	30
12	Udinese	19	8	5	6	+7	29
13	Bologna	19	8	2	9	-1	26
14	Genoa	19	6	7	6	+0	25
15	Sassuolo	19	7	3	9	-1	24
16	Chievo	19	6	5	8	-5	23
17	Crotone	18	5	4	9	-6	19
18	Empoli	19	5	4	10	-13	19
19	Palermo	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Pescara	19	2	5	12	-19	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	19	13	4	2	+30	43
2	Roma	19	12	2	5	+20	38
3	Juventus	19	11	3	5	+11	36
4	Lazio	18	9	5	4	+8	32
5	Atalanta	19	9	5	5	+8	32
6	Inter	19	8	2	9	+1	26
7	Milan	19	6	7	6	+0	25
8	Sassuolo	18	6	4	8	-2	22
9	Fiorentina	19	6	4	9	-5	22
10	Chievo	19	6	2	11	-13	20
11	Torino	19	4	6	9	-7	18
12	Sampdoria	19	4	6	9	-11	18
13	Udinese	18	4	4	10	-13	16
14	Bologna	19	3	6	10	-17	15
15	Empoli	18	3	4	11	-18	13
16	Crotone	19	3	3	13	-20	12
17	Cagliari	19	3	2	14	-25	11
18	Genoa	19	3	2	14	-26	11
19	Palermo	19	2	5	12	-27	11
20	Pescara	18	1	3	14	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.