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Serie A
Referee: Antonio Damato
Lazio
T U S S S
1–4
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,5
4,7
Scored
1,8
3,8
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+3,0
This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 88%
75%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 88%
75%
100%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
3,3
4,3
Scored
2,3
3,8
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+3,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%
4 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 11
0 Blocked shots 2
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 2
9 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lazio 4. · Napoli 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 5 4 1 0 +9 13
2 Napoli 4 4 0 0 +13 12
3 Juventus 4 4 0 0 +10 12
4 Lazio 4 3 1 0 +5 10
5 Roma 4 3 0 1 +6 9
6 Milan 4 3 0 1 +2 9
7 Torino 4 2 2 0 +4 8
8 Sampdoria 3 2 1 0 +2 7
9 Fiorentina 4 2 0 2 +2 6
10 Cagliari 4 2 0 2 -1 6
11 Bologna 5 1 2 2 -3 5
12 Atalanta 4 1 1 2 -2 4
13 Chievo 4 1 1 2 -3 4
14 Spal 4 1 1 2 -3 4
15 Udinese 4 1 0 3 -2 3
16 Genoa 4 0 1 3 -4 1
17 Sassuolo 4 0 1 3 -6 1
18 Crotone 4 0 1 3 -6 1
19 Verona 4 0 1 3 -10 1
20 Benevento 5 0 0 5 -13 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lazio Napoli
Ştefan Radu 🟨
21′
25′
🟨 Dries Mertens
A. Marušić 🔁
↦ Bastos
25′
1–0 S. de Vrij
C. Immobile
29′
34′
🟨 Pepe Reina
Half-time 1–0
A. Murgia 🔁
↦ S. de Vrij
46′
54′
K. Koulibaly 1–1
56′
José Callejón 1–2
M. Hamšík
59′
D. Mertens 1–3
J. Lukaku 🔁
↦ S. Milinković-Savić
63′
70′
🟨 Jorginho
73′
🔁 P. Zieliński
↦ M. Hamšík
Lucas Leiva 🟨
79′
81′
🔁 A. Milik
↦ D. Mertens
86′
🔁 M. Rog
↦ José Callejón
92′
Jorginho 1–4
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Lazio

3-4-2-1
1 T. Strakosha G
8 D. Basta M
26 Ş. Radu D
3 S. de Vrij D
15 Bastos D
6 Lucas Leiva M
19 S. Lulić M
16 M. Parolo M
18 Luis Alberto F
21 S. Milinković-Savić M
17 C. Immobile F
Bench (12)
77 A. Marušić
96 A. Murgia
5 J. Lukaku
4 Patric
7 Nani
11 L. Crecco
20 F. Caicedo
23 G. Guerrieri
25 I. Vargić
27 Luiz Felipe
29 S. Palombi
88 D. Di Gennaro

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Napoli

4-3-3
25 Pepe Reina G
33 Albiol D
11 C. Maggio D
26 K. Koulibaly D
31 F. Ghoulam D
17 M. Hamšík M
5 Allan M
8 Jorginho M
14 D. Mertens F
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
Bench (12)
20 P. Zieliński
99 A. Milik
30 M. Rog
1 Rafael
6 Mário Rui
15 E. Giaccherini
19 N. Maksimović
22 L. Sepe
23 E. Hysaj
37 A. Ounas
42 A. Diawara
62 L. Tonelli

Coach: M. Sarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Antonio Damato · 48 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.