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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Mainz

T T T S T

2–3

Full-time

Hoffenheim

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

43% Possession 57%

21 Shots 19

7 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 11

2 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 15. · Hoffenheim 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+9	12
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+10	10
3	Augsburg	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Hannover	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Schalke 04	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Hoffenheim	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	M'gladbach	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	RB Leipzig	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-4	6
12	Hertha	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Mainz	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Werder Bremen	5	0	2	3	-4	2
17	Freiburg	4	0	2	2	-7	2
18	FC Koln	5	0	0	5	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Augsburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+3	4
11	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Freiburg	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Bayern Munich	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Hannover	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	RB Leipzig	3	1	0	2	-1	3
10	M'gladbach	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Werder Bremen	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Hertha	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Leverkusen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Stuttgart	3	0	0	3	-6	0
17	Freiburg	2	0	0	2	-7	0
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.