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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Milan

T T T S U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

50%

46%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

4 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	21	0	4	+36	63
2	Roma	25	18	2	5	+32	56
3	Napoli	25	16	6	3	+33	54
4	Inter	25	15	3	7	+16	48
5	Atalanta	25	15	3	7	+14	48
6	Lazio	25	14	5	6	+15	47
7	Milan	24	12	5	7	+6	41
8	Fiorentina	24	11	7	6	+8	40
9	Torino	25	9	8	8	+6	35
10	Sampdoria	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Chievo	25	9	5	11	-8	32
12	Sassuolo	25	9	3	13	-6	30
13	Udinese	25	8	5	12	-6	29
14	Cagliari	25	8	4	13	-18	28
15	Bologna	25	7	6	12	-15	27
16	Genoa	25	6	7	12	-13	25
17	Empoli	25	5	7	13	-20	22
18	Palermo	25	3	5	17	-28	14
19	Crotone	25	3	4	18	-23	13
20	Pescara	25	2	6	17	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	13	0	0	+27	39
2	Roma	12	12	0	0	+28	36
3	Napoli	13	9	3	1	+16	30
4	Inter	12	9	2	1	+18	29
5	Atalanta	12	9	0	3	+8	27
6	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+11	26
7	Torino	12	7	4	1	+13	25
8	Sampdoria	13	7	4	2	+7	25
9	Fiorentina	12	6	6	0	+8	24
10	Milan	12	7	2	3	+5	23
11	Cagliari	12	7	2	3	+2	23
12	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+5	17
13	Udinese	13	5	2	6	+0	17
14	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-4	17
15	Sassuolo	12	5	1	6	-3	16
16	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-6	16
17	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	15
18	Crotone	12	3	2	7	-6	11
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-13	7
20	Palermo	12	1	1	10	-16	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	7	3	2	+17	24
2	Juventus	12	8	0	4	+9	24
3	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+6	21
4	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	21
5	Roma	13	6	2	5	+4	20
6	Inter	13	6	1	6	-2	19
7	Milan	12	5	3	4	+1	18
8	Fiorentina	12	5	1	6	+0	16
9	Chievo	12	5	1	6	-2	16
10	Sassuolo	13	4	2	7	-3	14
11	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
12	Torino	13	2	4	7	-7	10
13	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-11	10
14	Palermo	13	2	4	7	-12	10
15	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-8	9
16	Genoa	13	2	2	9	-18	8
17	Empoli	12	1	4	7	-11	7
18	Pescara	12	1	2	9	-15	5
19	Cagliari	13	1	2	10	-20	5
20	Crotone	13	0	2	11	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.