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Serie A
Referee: Luca Massimi
Sampdoria
U S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Cagliari
U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
1,5
0,7
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 30%
38%
21%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
42%
Both score Ø 48%
50%
46%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,9
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%
18 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 5
4 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sampdoria 10. · Cagliari 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 24 21 3 0 +37 66
2 Napoli 24 16 5 3 +24 53
3 Inter 24 14 4 6 +17 46
4 Milan 25 12 9 4 +16 45
5 Roma 25 12 8 5 +16 44
6 Atalanta 25 11 5 9 +15 38
7 Torino 25 9 11 5 +8 38
8 Lazio 24 11 5 8 +6 38
9 Fiorentina 24 8 11 5 +11 35
10 Sampdoria 24 9 6 9 +8 33
11 Sassuolo 24 7 9 8 -5 30
12 Parma 24 8 5 11 -8 29
13 Genoa 24 7 7 10 -9 28
14 Cagliari 24 5 9 10 -14 24
15 Udinese 24 5 7 12 -12 22
16 Spal 24 5 7 12 -15 22
17 Empoli 25 5 6 14 -18 21
18 Bologna 24 3 9 12 -18 18
19 Frosinone 25 3 7 15 -30 16
20 Chievo 24 1 9 14 -29 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sampdoria Cagliari
Albin Ekdal 🟨
18′
33′
🟨 Alessandro Deiola
Half-time 0–0
64′
🟨 Luca Pellegrini
1–0 F. Quagliarella
66′
73′
🔁 D. Srna
↦ A. Deiola
73′
🔁 P. Faragò
↦ S. Padoin
79′
🔁 F. Verde
↦ R. Doratiotto
B. Bereszyński 🔁
↦ N. Murru
80′
R. Vieira Nan 🔁
↦ G. Defrel
88′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sampdoria

4-3-1-2
1 E. Audero G
7 J. Sala D
29 N. Murru D
3 J. Andersen D
15 O. Colley D
6 A. Ekdal M
5 R. Saponara M
10 D. Praet M
14 J. Jankto M
27 F. Quagliarella F
92 G. Defrel F
Bench (9)
24 B. Bereszyński
4 R. Vieira Nan
20 M. Sau
72 V. Belec
12 M. Bahlouli
33 Rafael
22 Junior Tavares
25 A. Ferrari
23 M. Gabbiadini

Coach: M. Giampaolo

Cagliari

4-3-1-2
28 A. Cragno G
23 L. Ceppitelli D
19 F. Pisacane D
3 Luca Pellegrini D
8 L. Cigarini M
20 S. Padoin M
21 A. Ioniţă M
27 A. Deiola M
18 N. Barella M
30 L. Pavoletti F
36 R. Doratiotto F
Bench (10)
33 D. Srna
24 P. Faragò
37 F. Verde
22 C. Lykogiannis
16 S. Aresti
1 Rafael
6 F. Bradarić
26 M. Leverbe
17 C. Oliva
56 F. Romagna

Coach: R. Maran

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Luca Massimi · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
33,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.